Whither Pakistan? Growing Instability and Implications for India

About the Report

Pakistan has invariably evoked a great deal of interest among India’s strategic affairs community. Because of historical, geographical, economic and cultural linkages, developments in the neighbourhood have important implications for India’s politics, economy and security. This is especially true in the case of Pakistan. Recent developments in Pakistan have been a cause of concern for all the countries concerned about its future. Given the need for better understanding of developments in Pakistan, IDSA launched its Pakistan Project in the year 2009. The project team began its work in March 2009 and has been meeting regularly to discuss various developments in Pakistan. This is the first report produced by the team and it was reviewed by a panel of experts in January 2010 and finalized with their inputs and suggestions.

The basic argument that flows from the report is that Pakistan is likely to remain unstable because of inherent weaknesses in its political, economic and security policies. The absence of any long-term shared vision of Pakistan, the over-securitization of the state apparatus because of its obsession with India as a threat and an enemy, and the state’s ambivalence towards the phenomenon of Islamic radicalism will keep Pakistan in a state of chronic turmoil. The report suggests a set of policy alternatives for India to deal with the consequences of an unstable Pakistan, on a long term basis.

Contents

FOREWORD
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
PREFACE

CHAPTER I
Politics in Pakistan: A Discordant Quartet

CHAPTER II
Provinces of Pakistan: Politics, Militancy and Ethnic Nationalism

CHAPTER III
Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Travails of Uncertainty

CHAPTER IV
From Islamisation to Talibanisation: Possible Lebanonisation?

CHAPTER V
The Economy of Pakistan: Structural Weaknesses

CHAPTER VI
Civil-Military Relations: Army as the Final Arbiter

CHAPTER VII
Pakistan’s Counter-insurgency Campaign: An Assessment

CHAPTER VIII
Pakistan’s Nuclear & Missile Programmes: On a Short Fuse?

CHAPTER IX
Pakistan’s Relations with India: The Unending Quest for Parity

CHAPTER X
Pakistan 2020: Possible Scenarios and Options

CHAPTER XI
Dealing with An Unstable Pakistan: India’s Options

APPENDICES
Appendix I
Profiles of Some Terror Groups Operating in Pakistan
Appendix II
The Image of Pakistan in Media
Appendix III
Economic Indicators of Pakistan

Task Force Members

Arvind Gupta is Lal Bhadur Shastri Chair at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Alok Bansal is currently Executive Director, National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi, India. He was earlier Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Ashok K Behuria is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

C.V. Sastry is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Harinder Singh is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

P.K. Upadhayay is Consultant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Smruti S Pattanaik is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Sumita Kumar is Senior Research Associate at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Sushant Sarin is Consultant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Research Assistance Provided By

Kartik Bommakanti is Research Asistant, at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses(IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Medha Bisht Research Asistant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Shamshad Khan Research Asistant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Imtiyaz Majid Research Asistant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

Maps in the report are drawn by
Vivek Dhanker, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.

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