Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “India’s Turn to Minilateralism in the West Asia Context” during the Monday Morning Meeting on 10 July 2023. The session, moderated by Dr. Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Research Fellow and Coordinator, West Asia Centre, was attended by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, and scholars from the Institute.

Executive Summary

India’s focus is growing on minilateralism in the West Asian region. The region’s geopolitical landscape is transitioning to a multipolar structure, coinciding with concerns over the perceived US disengagement and the diversification of partnerships among US allies. The Abraham Accords have reshaped Israel-Arab Gulf dynamics, while efforts towards wider de-escalation are promoting scope for minilaterals. The US has recalibrated its role from traditional bilateral alliances to an integration-based regional approach. India’s turn to minilateralism is exemplified by the India-Israel-UAE-US (I2U2) initiative, which facilitates joint investments and practical cooperation in various sectors. A few other minilateral initiatives, such as the India-UAE Strategic Partnership and the India-Israel-US Strategic Partnership, emphasise shared interests in energy, food security, trade, and investment. These partnerships and initiatives aim to foster stability, prosperity, and connectivity in West Asia while advancing India’s independent strategic vision.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. P.K. Pradhan briefly outlined the idea behind India’s focus on minilateral groupings in West Asia. He specifically mentioned the India, Israel, UAE and USA (I2U2) Grouping, which was conceptualised in 2021. In 2022, the first Leaders’ Summit took place and six key areas, namely water, energy, transportation, space, health and food security, were identified to encourage joint investments. The significance of this grouping is also highlighted through the meeting held in May 2023, where National Security Advisors (NSAs) of India, the United States and the United Arab Emirates met in Riyadh. With this brief  introduction, Dr. Pradhan requested Dr. Saraswat to begin her presentation.

Dr. Saraswat commenced her presentation by discussing the geopolitical context of West Asia, highlighting the transition towards a multipolar landscape. She emphasised the concerns expressed by US allies in the region regarding the perceived US disengagement, leading to a diversification of partnerships and the exploration of regional alternatives. Abraham Accords and de-escalation created space for minilateral and regional frameworks. US National Security Strategy 2022 highlights the recalibration of the US role as the external security guarantor, emphasising integration-based approaches. US interest is being seen in synergising the Middle East and Indo-Pacific Strategy through building economic, political and security connections between and among US partners. Moreover, the transformation of India’s key bilateral relationships with the UAE and Israel from transactional to ‘strategic partnerships’ enabled India to engage in minilateral formats.

The speaker drew attention to India’s growing focus on minilateralism in its engagement with West Asia, highlighting the India-Israel-UAE-US (I2U2) initiative. The I2U2 Summit held in July 2022 laid the foundation for practical cooperation, with joint investments and initiatives in six sectors. The initiative capitalises on the participating countries’ relative strengths and trade synergies, leveraging factors like capital, technological prowess, and market size.

During her presentation, Dr. Saraswat provided specific examples of collaboration within the I2U2 framework. The nexus between technology, energy, and climate change has resulted in substantial investments from the UAE in integrated food parks across India and hybrid renewable energy projects in Gujarat. The importance of trans-regional connectivity, particularly through the India-Arab-Mediterranean Connectivity Corridor, was also emphasised. The inaugural I2U2 Business Forum held in February 2023 aimed to mobilise private sector capital and expertise for joint projects in renewable energy. India has joined the US-UAE-led Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate (AIM4C). In addition, establishing the I2U2 Joint Business Coalition in April 2023 enhanced technological and private-sector collaboration.

Dr. Saraswat discussed additional minilateral initiatives in which India has been involved in the West Asia. These included the India-Saudi Arabia-US-UAE NSAs meeting, which also discussed the establishment of an integrated railway network among Gulf and Arab countries, with India linked through maritime routes. However, progress on the India-Saudi bilateral front since the creation of the Strategic Partnership Council in 2019 has been slow. Other limiting factors in minilateral engagement include Saudi Arabia’s efforts to balance its relations with India, Pakistan, and China, strained Saudi-US ties, and Riyadh’s reluctance to fully normalise relations with Israel and Saudi-UAE economic competition. Egypt was highlighted as a country where India’s stabilising role alongside its Gulf partners has been crucial during the economic crisis, positioning Egypt as a gateway to markets in Europe, West Asia, and Africa. It is also an important destination for agriculture and defence exports.

The speaker emphasised the significance of the strategic partnership between India and the UAE since January 2017. The partnership is built on shared views regarding the challenges of religious extremism, terrorism, and economic openness. Various areas of cooperation were highlighted, including joint working groups for exploring outer space, collaboration on strategic petroleum reserves, the India-UAE food corridor, and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The CEPA has eliminated or reduced tariffs on 80% of product lines, facilitating investment in priority sectors and ensuring secure supply chains. UAE investment in renewable energy, food parks and logistics is helping to overcome development challenges through trade.

While contextualising Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approach of ‘peace through strength’, Dr. Saraswat discussed India’s de-hyphenation of its Israel-Palestine policy and Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Israel in 2017 as crucial for the emergence of a technological and development partnership between India and Israel. She noted that as negotiations are underway for the India-Israel Free Trade Agreement, the two sides are leveraging the complementarities of Israel’s technological prowess and India’s market size.

Dr. Saraswat concluded by mentioning that India’s growing focus on minilateral engagements and strategic partnerships reflects a transformation in New Delhi’s approach towards West Asia. The geopolitical shifts and the US recalibration in West Asia have created some convergences between the US and India as both share a vision of an ‘interconnected’ cooperative region. However, India will continue to have its independent strategic vision towards the region.  In the present scenario, India is unlikely to engage in ‘hard’ security issues beyond the freedom of navigation in the region’s waterways.

Comments and Questions

Dr. Pradhan opened the floor for comments and questions. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, argued that minilaterals are as good as the sum of their parts. Minilateral groupings demonstrate the resilience of bilateral relations, showcasing their ability to deliver outcomes that larger groups cannot. These smaller collaborations harness the collective strengths of their members, surpassing the limitations of broader multilateral efforts. However, he cautioned that minilaterals, which are flexible in nature, should not be confused with permanent commitments.

The Director General also noted that the I2U2 has been erroneously labelled as the “second QUAD” in media circles. Minilaterals offer flexibility, as evidenced by the NSAs meeting in Saudi Arabia, where UAE, USA, and India participated. However, Israel did not attend due to its current relationship dynamics with Saudi Arabia.

Ambassador Chinoy highlighted the aspect that the US profile in the region should be considered with the leverage Gulf nations possessed earlier due to their significant supply of oil, gas, and other fossil fuels to the US market. The US, now having transitioned to a net energy exporter, is recalibrating its approach. The US is exploring virtual range or over-the-horizon capabilities to be deployed as needed in the Gulf region.  Moreover, Gulf and Arab nations have gained leverage with Europe. As India absorbs Russian oil, these nations are in a better position to meet the supply demands in Europe.

The Director General mentioned that China is often considered a very good alternative destination, market, and arms supplier, as well as a major consumer of oil and gas. However, India is also being viewed as a significant emerging market with great potential. Consequently, countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia are likely to increase their investments in India, recognising its growth prospects and economic opportunities.

Dr. Adil Rasheed mentioned Indian PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Egypt in June 2023 and emphasised the need to boost bilateral relations. He asked about the possibility of India’s minilateral arrangement with Egypt.

Dr. S Samuel C. Rajiv noted that the de-escalation phase did not mean the disappearance of the faultlines in the West Asian region and asked about India’s posture towards Iran.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan highlighted the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China in West Asia and asked about the possibility and implications of the US withdrawal from the region.

Gp. Capt. ( Dr.) Rajiv Kumar Narang (Retd.) asked questions on India’s partnership with UAE on petroleum reserves, India-Israel research and development partnership and progress in agriculture cooperation.

Capt. Anurag Bisen (IN) mentioned the absence of ‘security’ in the six agendas of I2U2 and asked about the possibility of including maritime security in the agendas.

Dr. Deepika Saraswat gave comprehensive responses, addressing the comments and questions from the Institute’s scholars.

The report has been prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, West Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.