Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) spoke on “ISIS: An Enduring Threat” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 28 October 2024. The session was chaired by Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. MP-IDSA scholars participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

ISIS has remained an enduring security threat due to its adaptability, exploitation of regional and global instability, and media propaganda.

Detailed Report

The session commenced with opening remarks from Dr. Jason Wahlang, who provided an insightful overview of the persistent threat the Islamic State (IS) posed despite its waning influence in recent years. The Islamic State, alongside its various vilayets, continues to leverage instability in regions worldwide, exploiting global security shifts for resurgence.

Dr. Wahlang highlighted the worrying escalation of IS activities in previously unaffected areas, including the attack in Azerbaijan’s Qusar district in September 2024 and the assault on a Shia Mosque in Oman. He stressed that the current complex geopolitical climate and the focus of major powers on their security imperatives, especially with the Russia-Ukraine War and the broader West Asian instability, has carved out space for a potential ISIS revival.

Ms. Kidwai explained that since its physical defeat in March 2019, ISIS has effectively preserved its global threat profile through the evolution of operational tactics, sustained ideological appeal, and the exploitation of geopolitical conflicts. This adaptability, combined with sophisticated media-driven propaganda, has allowed ISIS to mobilise a diverse array of fighters, including lone wolves, enabled individuals, and trained operatives, all contributing to the perpetuation of the group’s agenda.

Ms. Kidwai also highlighted how high-profile international sporting events, such as the Paris Olympics and Euro Games, remain vulnerable to exploitation by ISIS, as these “soft targets” provide terrorist groups visibility and an opportunity to inflict substantial impact. Moreover, recent incidents, including the Solingen knife assault and threats against the U.S. Capitol, underscore the ongoing resilience of ISIS and its capacity to execute attacks on a global scale. These trends highlight the urgent need for a comprehensive and coordinated counterterrorism strategy to effectively address this enduring threat.

Furthermore, Ms. Kidwai noted that the 2024 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) reaffirms ISIS’s status as the world’s deadliest terrorist organisation, attributing 470 attacks and 1,636 deaths to the group in the preceding year. Ongoing regional and international conflicts, exacerbated by socio-political disparities, provide fertile ground for ISIS’s recruitment and radicalisation efforts. The group’s sustained strategy to inspire violence through multilingual propaganda has ensured that its influence extends beyond physical borders, reinforcing its long-term goals as both an ideological force and a security challenge across nations.

Ms. Kidwai explained that ISIS has leveraged various networks across Africa, such as the Maktab Al-Karrar’s global financing network, which oversees regions including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, and Somalia. This network has played a crucial role in coordinating terror financing and attacks on a global scale, notably funding the 2021 Kabul airport attack perpetrated by Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP).

Furthermore, the terrorist group employs both conventional and unconventional financing methods, including hawala networks, cryptocurrency, and extortion schemes through social media platforms like Tinder, specifically targeting South African citizens. These activities have intensified in South Africa, where established economic structures, combined with corruption and complacency, have facilitated ISIS’s financing and logistical operations.

According to Ms. Kidwai, globally, ISIS has proven its capacity to strike in unexpected locations, as demonstrated by the first ISIS-claimed assault in Oman on 15 July 2024, where an attack on a Shia Mosque resulted in numerous casualties. In Russia, a resurgence of ISIS activity has been observed, with deadly attacks in Moscow and Dagestan, along with coordinated prison break attempts. In Syria and Iraq, where the group initially established its caliphate, ISIS has exploited the challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic and governmental unrest, enabling it to regroup and renew its attacks.

Ms. Kidwai underscored that ISIS continues to exploit destabilised and poorly regulated regions, particularly near the Iraq-Syria border and within the Kurdish autonomous region, to smuggle weapons, move fighters, and establish sleeper cells. This threat endures despite repeated joint raids by Iraqi and American forces.

In Syria, detention camps like al-Hol have become breeding grounds for new extremism, exacerbated by inadequate oversight, where indoctrination continues unabated.

Simultaneously, ISIS’s global reach and propaganda mechanisms have evolved, becoming increasingly sophisticated. ISKP has utilised major propaganda outlets like Al-Azaim Foundation to disseminate its extremist ideology and target regimes in Central Asia. ISKP’s media strategies, which include AI-generated content and dissemination of propaganda through platforms such as TikTok and Telegram, have significantly broadened its audience, allowing for the creation of visually compelling propaganda.

ISIS has also employed outlets like Al-Naba to denounce other groups, notably branding Hamas as an apostate organisation and accusing Iran of betraying Hamas leaders. Recent developments, such as the arrest of Islamic State in Hind Province’s leader Haris Farooqi and his aide Rehan in India, further illustrate ISIS’s attempts to extend its influence in South Asia. However, its reach within India has been limited.

During her concluding remarks, Ms. Kidwai added that global conflicts and polarisation have hindered a unified counter-terrorism response to deal with the ISIS threat. Looking forward, ISIS is expected to exploit emerging socio-political grievances and leverage sophisticated propaganda techniques to sustain its presence within global extremist networks. Finally, these developments call for a robust, multifaceted counter-terrorism approach, addressing both the immediate and evolving threats posed by ISIS and its affiliates to ensure a comprehensive global response.

Q&A Session

The presentation was followed by a Q&A Session. Several key dynamics were addressed, revealing the multifaceted nature of contemporary terrorism, the speculation surrounding external influences in ISIS’s formation, its digital transition post-territorial loss and its decentralised structure.

Ms. Kidwai provided insightful responses to the comments and questions raised.

This report was prepared by Ms. Dalvi Sethi, Intern, Europe & Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.