Events post the ‘Arab Spring’ have developed at a very fast pace. Domestically, the nature of regimes is changing, externally, new geo political alignments are taking shape. Egypt is all set to regain its status as a major regional power while Iran and Turkey look to consolidate on their positions in the region. With the change in global and regional security environment, the balance of power in West Asia is also set to change. Iran plays an important role in the security of the region. Likewise, India is also an emerging power with important role not only in these regions but also in Indian Ocean region stretching from the Horn of Africa to the Straits of Malacca. India has a strong vibrant Diaspora in these regions. Energy security is crucial for India’s growth. India’s trade ties with the region are also strong and growing rapidly. Without Iran’s inclusion durable regional security architecture will not be sustainable. Iran controls the entry and exit to the Straits of Hormuz through which vast amount of oil passes. The uninterrupted oil supplies from the Persian Gulf remain important for India and world economy in general. Any military attack on Iran can interfere with the safety of oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz. Military conflict in the region can lead to massive rise in global oil prices affecting the global economy. The political and security situation in Afghanistan post 2014 remain uncertain. Both India and Iran have an important stake in the stability of Afghanistan. Can the two countries cooperate?
Iran’s relevance for India lies in the former’s geographical location, size, as a source of crude oil, and its influence as the world’s largest Shia Muslim majority state. India has a large Shia Muslim population too. Moreover, Iran can provide an alternative route for trade and commerce with the Central Asian states. More importantly, its potential to play a pivotal role in a number of regional configurations, mainly in the Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and the Caspian Basin area, enhances its significance for India. So far India has been struggling to manage its ties with Iran because of the indirect impact of the US and EU sanctions. India continues to comply with the UN sanctions but has refused to comply with the unilateral sanctions imposed by EU and US. Despite current difficulties Iran’s importance for India will continue to grow.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Tehran in August 2012 for NAM summit was followed by bilateral talks with the Supreme Leader and the President. Both sides have agreed to enhance the quality of their bilateral relations. Iran after a long time has agreed to the opening of an Indian cultural centre in Iran. The two sides have also agreed to develop the Chabahar port. Presently India Iran bilateral trade is US $ 15,968.03 million (2011- 2012) as compared to 12,887.52 million in 2007-2008.
Thus, while the region reorganises itself, Iran and India need to critically assess the ongoing developments and look towards consolidating their strong bilateral relations. With this in view, it is felt necessary to take a de novo look into various aspects of India’s engagement with Iran, especially in context to the recent developments and how the likely future contours are going to shape India’s relation with this very important country in the region.
The IDSA-IPIS Strategic dialogues at Track II level have traditionally provided a platform for Indian and Iranian experts to take stock of the evolving regional and global situation and how it affects India-Iran bilateral relations. It has often been felt by both sides that bilateral relations were ‘normal’ but far below their true potential. There is therefore a need to reflect on the factors that are holding back further development of bilateral ties despite excellent potential.
As part of its ongoing efforts to bring together experts on security and economic issues of mutual interest, IDSA and IPIS have held eight rounds of Track II India-Iran Dialogue (1998, 2000, 2001 & 2003, 2008-2011) so far. The present Bilateral Dialogue – 9th in the series – seeks to know each other’s perspectives on varied issues of immediate mutual interest and long-term concern. It also provides the opportunity to exchange and enhance understanding of the emerging international order and regional challenges, and to suggest options available. It is in this context that IDSA and IPIS have decided to host the 9th Bilateral Dialogue on the theme “Developments in West Asia: Indian and Iranian Perspective”.
The meeting will deliberate on the following issues over two sessions:
Session I: Emerging Trends in West Asia: Iranian and Indian Perspectives
Session II: Iranian and Indian Perspectives on the prospects for India-Iran Bilateral Relations