The Centre brings out bimonthly newsletter – East Asia Monitor – on China, Japan and the Korean Peninsula.
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Where are India-China relations heading, given repeated Chinese claims in recent years to Indian territory and a noticeable hardening of its position beginning with Sun Yuxi’s statements on Arunachal Pradesh in 2006? The latest Chinese claim is on Sikkim’s finger tip region, which came up a few weeks before Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s four-day visit to China between 4 and 7 June 2008.
Encouraging developments on either side of the Taiwan Straits have taken place recently, considerably reducing the ‘shrill atmospherics’ surrounding ‘independence’ and ‘invasion’ by several notches. The primary determinant driving these developments has undoubtedly been the Kuomintang’s (KMT) coming to power in the legislative elections held in March 2008.
In a disturbing sign, the Chinese seem to have brought up Sikkim and not Arunachal Pradesh back to the table during the recent visit of Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to China. The belief was that China had implicitly recognised Indian sovereignty over Sikkim in 2003, and as such there was no dispute on the matter with China. China’s recognition of Sikkim was interpreted as a quid pro quo for India’s recognition of total Chinese sovereignty over Tibet in 2003.
Sino-Japanese relations were in the doldrums for the past decade because of the repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. One consequence was a complete freeze in mutual visits at the highest political levels between 2001 and 2006. Even exchanges at other levels were affected. The ice was broken in 2006 when Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe visited China, and the ice began to thaw when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Japan in 2007.
“[China] feels that the Himalayas alone in this nuclear age are not enough to guarantee its national security, especially in view of Tibet’s strategic location. [It], therefore, ideally wants a China of small, preferably pro-Chinese, neighbours on the cis-Himalayan region separating the two Asian giants.”
- Dawa Norbu
“There will never ever be change in Zimbabwe. We shall never reverse the gains of the liberation struggle. Zimbabwe will never be a colony again.” – Robert Mugabe (2008).
The KMT’s victory in the March 2008 presidential elections can be essentially attributed to the promises it made to improve economic ties with Mainland China and assure good governance. Ironically, these were partly the same promises that had brought the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) to power in the historic 2000 presidential election. There was no element of surprise to the election results in which Ma Ying-Jeou defeated his DPP counterpart Frank Hsieh. The KMT’s victory does not mean that Taiwan will begin supporting unification with the Mainland.
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s recent visit to China from April 10-16 revealed the depth and confidence that highlight Pakistan-China relations. The much repeated refrain of an “all-weather friendship” between the two countries is now transforming itself from the erstwhile “purely defensive and strategic” in nature to one of deep economic engagement.
In a development that is expected to ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwanese voted in favour of the Kuomintang (KMT, Nationalist Party) candidate Ma Ying-jeou in the March 22 presidential election. Ma’s victory was unprecedented, as he captured 58 per cent of the total votes cast – a full 16 percentage points more than Frank Hsieh of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
The Indian government’s response to the ongoing protests in Tibet has been to merely state its “distress” about the situation and reaffirm its position that Tibet is an “internal” affair of China. New Delhi has assured Beijing that its position on the Tibet issue is “clear and consistent” and that this “would not change in the future.” The Indian position is based on its traditional opposition to separatist movements and to foreign intervention in support of such movements.
The recently concluded 11th National People’s Congress (NPC) held in Beijing from March 5-18 was noteworthy for two significant features – administrative restructuring of the government and introduction of personnel changes at the very highest echelons of the one-party state.
Ongoing protests in Tibet, coinciding with the commemoration of the 49th anniversary of the 1959 March Uprising, was not unexpected given that China is only a few months away from the Beijing Olympics. The hosting of the Olympics is looked upon as China’s formal arrival as a great power and as an event that heralds its potential emergence as a superpower in the years to come. Consequently, the Chinese government has been well prepared to confront any untoward developments that could tarnish its image as a responsible global power.
Tibet has been an important and controversial issue for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since it came to power in 1949. The CCP “liberated” Tibet in 1950 and began its official rule in 1951. There have been two previous uprisings in Tibet, in 1959 and 1989. The latest protests have brought to the forefront the fact that all is not well in Tibet as claimed by the CCP. The policy followed by the CCP has been to increase the number of Han Chinese in Tibet, and thus more fully amalgamate the region into the mainland. All top and important official positions in Tibet are held by Han Chinese.
The recent Chinese Foreign Ministry statement expressing ‘unhappiness’ about Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh has generated a debate in India as to whether China is serious about resolving the disputed border. The statement has set back any possibility for an early and realistic settlement of the border dispute. A week after the verbal protest to the Indian mission in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao stated in an official briefing on February 14: “regarding Mr. Singh’s visit to that area, we have expressed our concern.
The impact of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia on February 17 is being felt on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. Apart from plunging the European Union (EU) into a crisis, Kosovo’s independence has escalated the ‘war of words’ between China and Taiwan even as the latter gears up for the March 22 presidential elections, which will also feature a referendum on the island considering membership of the United Nations under the name of 'Taiwan.'
The recent public protests against the general price rise in Myanmar and the government crack down once again drew the world’s attention to the plight of the Myanmarese. But the focus has generally been on the political aspects, particularly the possibility of peaceful reconciliation and subsequent installation of a democratic government. In contrast, this paper attempts to peep into the economic aspects of military rule and its impact on the general public and concludes with certain possible implications for neighbouring countries like India.
In 2007 Chinese hackers gained notoriety in the US after a series of cyber intrusions, including one involving Pentagon systems. Though China denies involvement and the US is reluctant to make it public, the reason for suspecting China stems from the history of Chinese hacking since 2001, when a Chinese hacker community, Honker Union, declared cyber war on US government and business. Since then, there has been a series of Chinese hacking operations.
The 17th South Korean Presidential elections were concluded on December 19, 2007. The last serving President Roh Moo-hyun could not contest these elections as he had completed two terms in office. Roh Moo-hyun belonged to the Centrist Reformists Democratic Party, formerly called Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), or Saecheonnyeon Minju-dang, but changed its name to the present form on May 6, 2005. The MDP lost popularity when Roh was impeached in March 2004 by the National Assembly for illegal electioneering and incompetence.
A China Daily news item on November 22, 2007 states that both China and India will hold their first joint-army exercise in Yunan province of Southwest China in December. The piece titled “China-India Plan Joint Military Exercise” highlights the pledge of both the Chinese and Indian Prime Minister’s intent to push the Sino-Indian strategic partnership to a “new level”. Given the political value and media attention, the nature of this forthcoming exercise is seen as a “need” to fortify a sense of confidence between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
A month after the 17th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was convened in mid-October, 2007, the Information Office of the State Council published a White Paper titled China’s Political Party System on 15 November. Comprising seven chapters and one appendix, the publication of the White Paper is perhaps reflective of the deliberations within the higher echelons of the Chinese leadership on initiating political reform.
