Arab Spring or Islamic State – The Case of Tunisia
The recent attack on the Bardo museum and killing of foreign tourists has demonstrated that the challenge from the hardline Islamists remains.
- S. K. Bhutani
- March 31, 2015
The historical shifts in the region and domestic political developments will have a significant impact on India’s external environment. With huge stakes in the region such as energy, trade and safety of Indian citizens in the region, it has become important for India to carefully watch developments taking place in its ‘extended neighbourhood.’ These and other related issues are being focused upon by the scholars at the Centre. The Centre continues to hold regular bilateral dialogues with some leading think tanks in West Asia thus facilitating exchange of ideas and perspectives.
Current projects being pursued in the Centre are:
No posts of Books and Monograph.
No posts of Jounral.
The recent attack on the Bardo museum and killing of foreign tourists has demonstrated that the challenge from the hardline Islamists remains.
US authorities seem to be unusually reluctant to use air power to help the Iraqi authorities and their Iranian allies in the conduct of the Tikrit offensive. Why?
Saudi Arabia has joined the war against the IS and it supports more boots on the ground to tackle this challenge. Although it is employing all the options available to it, the success of anti-IS operations depends to a significant extent on the ground situation in Syria and Iraq.
With the conclusion of the parliamentary and presidential elections, based on a constitution that finely balances the country’s Islamic heritage with the need for modernity, Tunisia has done what Egypt has failed to do.
China, like Russia, suffers from domestic terrorism (the Uyghur East Turkestan Islamic Movement). Daesh leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has put China on a list of countries accused of persecuting Muslims, thus making it a target for jihad.
The PAC-3 missile defence deal is a win-win package for both the United States and Saudi Arabia in terms of both their bilateral relations and the enhancement of regional security.
Sultan Qaboos once observed that “while other Gulf Arabs prefer to get on a camel and go west into the Arab desert, Omanis prefer to be on a boat and drift towards India.”
This is the right time to raise a fundamental question about Obama’s policy towards Syria: Is there a coherent, consistent policy, based on a reasonably accurate assessment of the ground realities in Syria? The answer is a definite no.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death will be a serious setback to Daesh as it is different from Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups that did not proclaim a ‘caliphate’. As the history of Islam shows, the proclamation of a new ‘caliph’ can be problematic.
There is no single factor cited for motivating Central Asians to join ISIS ranks. However, the search for employment and earnings remain the main driver. More than 4 million migrants (Uzbeks, Tajiks and Kyrgyz) engaged in low-paid jobs in Russia are vulnerable to the jihadi network.
In the West, there is growing realisation that only boots on the ground can defeat or substantially destroy the Daesh. Unless a ground force capable of taking back the territories seized by the Daesh arrives on the scene, the advantage will lie with the jihadis.
With the US determined not to commit troops, the military defeat of ISIS, at present, is therefore neither feasible nor imminent. Neither the so-called retrained Iraqi Army, nor US air power against this powerful and motivated force will be sufficient.
While the ceasefire is a much needed respite yet it does raise two questions: What made the key players arrive at such agreements? Can these deals facilitate the initiation of a political dialogue in Ukraine?
Bitter last ditch battles are being fought by Kurdish men and women, including boys and girls barely out of their teens, against the Daesh. Some feel that to succeed, Washington must cooperate with the Syrian Kurds (YPG) as Kurdish fighters alone have proved willing and capable of taking on the Daesh.
It all appears that the Indian army this time got clear orders to hold the ground and undo what the previous UPA government did – dismantled huts, bunkers and observation posts in exchange of PLA moving back from the Indian territory.
Modi should talk to Xi and seek an interim boundary solution at least by having some sort of Friendly Pillars, call them Shanti Stupas along the border (almost 500 kilometers) in the Western Sector.
China, like Russia, suffers from domestic terrorism (the Uyghur East Turkestan Islamic Movement). Daesh leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has put China on a list of countries accused of persecuting Muslims, thus making it a target for jihad.
There is a great traction amongst western countries on building up a coalition to tackle ISIS, but the big question is which countries in West Asia would be able to synchronise western goals with theirs? While the US and its NATO allies, along with France and Australia have been assisting the Kurdish peshmerga, the list of Arab countries willing to work with the West-led coalition is unclear.
It is possible, if there is political will, to find a negotiated settlement on the basis of a new constitution giving greater say to regions in foreign policy. In brief, the US should agree to a sort of Finlandization of Ukraine.
The decision to commit US military power has been camouflaged in suitably humanitarian terms to give the impression that it was an effort designed to ‘protect’ the fleeing Yazidis and other minority groups.