Two projects that are currently under progress are ‘Developments in Pakistan’ and ‘Pakistan Occupied Kashmir’. In addition, individual scholars are engaged in researching various security related aspects pertaining to South Asian countries. The Centre has established bilateral institutional relations with leading think tanks in the region and proposes to undertake joint studies.
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Bangladesh's Chief of Staff General Mooen U Ahmed's visit to India scheduled in the fourth week of August now stands postponed in wake of the severe floods sweeping across the country. This visit by the army chief was keenly awaited in India and is particularly significant in the light of the political developments that have taken place in Bangladesh ever since the Khaleda Zia-led BNP coalition government demitted office in October 2006.
The recently concluded Foreign Secretary level talks in Dhaka between India and Bangladesh saw agreement on three broad issues. The first of these related to sharing of intelligence pertaining to security. Secondly, India agreed to provide greater access to Bangladeshi goods to the Indian market, as earlier announced by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during the SAARC summit held in New Delhi. And thirdly, the two countries agreed to take steps to implement the 1974 Indira-Mujib land boundary agreement, which has been a long-standing demand of Bangladesh.
Nearly six years after the toppling of the Taliban regime and the completion of the Bonn Process, the situation in Afghanistan continues to remain fragile. A recent visit to provinces in Afghanistan and 'person on the street' narratives in Herat, Kabul, Balkh, Parvan, Baglan, Samangan, Kapisa, and Nangarhar portrays a general sense of resignation amongst the people as they watch their nation sliding backwards. Despite a massive international effort with a total pledge (Grants & Loans) of US $29,304.9 million, the goal of rebuilding a stable Afghanistan remains distant.
A commentator of Pakistani origin in the US, writing in The Wall Street Journal in September 2006, coined a new name for Pakistan, i.e., Musharrafistan. He fell short of saying ‘Musharraf is Pakistan and Pakistan is Musharraf’. At one level, Musharraf had until now established his reputation as the best bet for the US and the West, as a liberal dictator and better-than-the-rest leader within Pakistan, who pulled Pakistan successfully away from the brink.
The recent aerial attacks by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) at Katunayake Military air base in Colombo, and Palaly airbase in Jaffna, have worsened the security situation in the island nation. While security analysts are apprehensive about the LTTE air power and the heightened crisis, the human rights monitors have raised serious concerns about the emerging humanitarian crisis due to escalating conflict.
The LTTE's air attack on the Sri Lankan Air Force base at Katunayake, adjoining the Katunayake International Airport (KIA), marks a new dimension in the three-decade-old conflict. The bombing raid by the Tamileelam Air Force (TAF), reportedly originating from Vanni, has not only sharpened the focus on the island's security but also on that of India. Besides, the bombing, which left three people killed and about 17 injured, has thrown open the question of how weak the Tigers really are even after the debacle they have recently suffered in the Eastern Province.
In January 2007, the House of Representatives in Nepal, restored after the people's movement of April, 2006, unanimously adopted an interim Constitution and dissolved itself. This technically paved the way for Maoist insurgents to enter a new and reconstituted interim parliament. Clearly a political landmark of tremendous import, Nepal's political transition has been accompanied by the initiation of a nascent disarmament process.
A recent survey by a Colombo-based agency on the peace process revealed that a majority of Sri Lankans prefers India as a peace facilitator rather than the Norwegians. According to the report by the Centre for Policy Alternatives, over 52.5 per cent of Sinhalese and 82 per cent of upcountry Tamils voted for an Indian involvement in the peace process. In recent years, the mood has shifted across Sri Lanka with major parties to the conflict instilling a newfound faith on New Delhi as the ideal arbitrator for the peace process.
That the Taliban power stands resurrected is a fact now. At the same time, the 'war on terror' is also showing signs of fatigue. It has already come to a halt in the north-western tribal expanse of Pakistan, the cradle of the Taliban's resurrection. Dubbed as 'remnants' until recently, the Taliban today are a power to reckon with, effectively redrawing the power equations within Afghanistan.
The conflict in Sri Lanka is escalating everyday as the government forces and the Tamil Tigers take on each other with renewed determination. The peace process has all but collapsed and the violent encounters are leading to large-scale influx of Tamil refugees from Sri Lanka into the Indian state of Tamil Nadu. This fresh wave of refugees has brought a perceptible change in the perception of the people in Tamil Nadu in particular and India in general towards the ethnic conflict in Sri lanka.
Statistics reveal that the Border Security Force (BSF) has so far, this year, apprehended 8,196 persons who were trying enter India illegally from Bangladesh. The numbers that successfully manage to evade the security forces on the border, is of course, much larger. Apart from the usual suspects, the militants and economic migrants, the recent political turmoil in Bangladesh has also resulted in many Bangladeshi political dissidents and people from the religious minorities attempting to sneak into India to avoid political and religious persecution.
At present Sri Lanka is witnessing the worst fighting since the signing of the ceasefire agreement (CFA) on February 22, 2002. The fighting was sparked by the LTTE's blockade of the Maavilaru reservoir on July 22, 2006 and the Sri Lankan government's attempts to reopen it by force. Since then the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government have indulged in heavy fighting in the north and east over issues like Sampur and the A9 highway. This has again put a question mark on the prospects for peace and is causing internal and international despair.
The Bangladesh National Party (BNP), which came to power in 2001, completed its term on October 28, 2006 amidst violent protests that saw 24 people losing their lives. Rejecting the BNP's nominee for the post of Chief Adviser of the caretaker government, the 14 party opposition alliance led by the Awami League (AL) called for a strike to press for an alternate Chief Advisor as well as for electoral reforms. A political crisis has, however, been averted by the country's President, who assumed the additional responsibility of the Chief Advisor.
A flare-up in the fighting in the East, particularly in Trincomalee District, has put a question mark on the prospects of peace in the island nation. The Eastern province of Sri Lanka has been a theatre of war for more than 20 years, and, since the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement it has particularly been the stage for continued local level conflict due to its multiethnic nature. All three communities, Tamils, Muslims and Sinhalese, continue to face severe threats to their human security such as loss of livelihood and internal displacement.
The meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf on the sidelines of the Havana non-aligned summit is being projected as an important breakthrough on the issue of terrorism as well as with regard to the broad contours of Indo-Pak relations. The meeting was significant as it was held in the aftermath of the Mumbai blasts, which had led to some tough talk by India. This Indian outburst underlined the frustration and limits of its tolerance to Pakistan's continued support to terrorism.
Anxiety and uncertainty are perceptible even as Bangladesh prepares itself for the next elections scheduled for January 2007. As the incumbent BNP government prepares to transfer power to a caretaker government by the end of October 2006, there is a sense of visible unease about Bangladesh's political future, as many issues pertaining to these elections remain unresolved. It appears that a few issues need an amicable settlement before the ruling party hands over power to the caretaker government.
Despite the cease-fire, the Nepalese Maoists are busy collecting illegal taxes, besides carrying out abductions, extortion and forceful recruitment. They are consolidating their bases in urban areas where they had a very poor presence till April 2006, and are recruiting new cadres with the objective of setting up a communist society, if the peace talks fail. In the last four months, the strength of the Maoist armed cadres has increased from 29,000 to 35,000. While the Nepal Army is confined to its barracks, the Maoists are reportedly carrying their arms and moving freely.
The killing of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, popularly known as the "Tiger of Balochistan" in the early hours of August 27 in an army operation has ominous implications for the restive province. The tribal chief of the largest Baloch tribe, the Bugtis, was a strong proponent of Baloch autonomy, and had said that he had been a Baloch for several centuries, a Muslim for 1400 years but a Pakistani for just over fifty.
The pro-democracy, anti-Musharraf movement launched by the combined opposition in May 2006 will once again put on trial the strength and determination of the people of Pakistan to snatch power from the clutches of the military. The Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD), a conglomerate of 15 parties, has demanded the resignation of President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz by July 31, 2006, failing which a vote of no-confidence would be moved against the Musharraf regime. The demand was made in a resolution adopted by the Alliance on July 2.
Condoleeza Rice's visit to Pakistan on June 27-28, 2006 before she proceeded to Kabul indicated abundant concern on the part of the US government about the increasing strength of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the expectation that Pakistan would pull its weight to ensure better results in combating terrorism. This was made apparent in her clearly enunciated statement which emphasised the need for increased cooperation between Pakistan and the Afghan government on the one hand, and among the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan on the other.
