Comment & Briefs

The landslide victory of the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina in the December 29, 2008 parliamentary elections ended the two-year old political uncertainty in Bangladesh and marks the return of a democratic government. With 262 seats out of 299 for the Awami League-led Grand Alliance, Sheikh Hasina is entrusted with the onus of opening a new era in the history of Bangladesh. The mandate clearly shows that people voted to power the party that won the country’s independence from Pakistan, and rejected the BNP-led four-party combine which got only 32 seats.

The recent downslide in crude oil prices from a peak of US $147 a barrel to below $40 and speculated to fall further to $25 has evidently provided relief to oil importing countries, which have been triply inflicted by huge oil pool deficits, growing food prices and global economic downturn. But based on current oil market fundamentals and past experience, there is no reason not to believe that the current fall in oil prices is likely to be temporary. Sooner or later prices will rise and may even be higher than the recent peak because of two particular reasons.

Undoubtedly, the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks was an international tragedy. It was a crime under international law and as the serious concerns expressed by the UN Security Council demonstrates, it had the potential to threaten international peace and security. Accordingly, it had provoked outright and vehement condemnation by the international community.

The November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks have highlighted the new challenges posed by cyberwar. A faked telephone call from the India Foreign Minister to the Pakistani President caused a diplomatic flutter. It appears that the new civilian leadership in Pakistan was not aware of diplomatic protocol involved in such telephonic contacts and was fooled into believing that this was indeed a genuine communication.

As Bangladesh is holding its most closely watched general elections, the apprehension remains whether democracy would prevail in the country. All the uncertainties about the elections were removed when the interim authority repealed the state of emergency that had been prevailing in the country since January 11, 2007. It was on that day that a military backed caretaker government had assumed power after months of political strife and failure of the earlier caretaker government headed by President Iajuddin Ahmed to hold free and fair elections.

Since the beginning of the Lula administration in 2003, Brazilian foreign policy has been re-oriented towards a renewed and more extended approach to regional politics. Under Lula, Brazil’s foreign policy approach to South America has been outlined by a kind of ‘pragmatic solidarity’ towards its neighbours.

The October 30, 2008 serial blasts in Assam were the most horrific that the state has witnessed till date. These blasts have completely confused the investigating agencies, which still seem to be focusing only upon the foot soldiers while the real masterminds are sitting happily in Bangladesh and congratulating their points men in India for doing a good job.

If all things go well, Bangladesh should have an elected government in January 2009 following the Jatiya Sangsad (national parliament) elections. Contrary to much scepticism, the caretaker government headed by Fakhruddin Ahmed has embarked upon fulfilling its promise of holding free and fair elections on December 29, 2008. This caretaker government received groundswell support because it was viewed as an instrument of democracy in Bangladesh, something that the previously elected government was unable to deliver at the end of its tenure in 2006.

Economic growth in the Asian region and emerging opportunities for interregional trade are creating a demand for viable transport connectivity, land-linking arrangements, and important transit services. However, due to geographical and geopolitical attributes, India and Central Asian countries have been confronted with a range of constraints which have hitherto inhibited a full realization of two-way trade and commerce. The problems of distance have been substantially compounded by the instability factor in Afghanistan and Pakistan.