Comment & Briefs

With elections looming large in both countries and the Indo-US nuclear deal facing its moment of truth, the inevitable question will arise as to who has gained how much from the Strategic Partnership that was signed with great fanfare in July 2005. This is not withstanding the fact that the failure of the nuclear deal would undoubtedly be a setback for both countries and besmirch the reputations of those leaders who had put their personal prestige on the line. It would also reflect poorly on the political parties and the governments involved in various ways.

The release of Sheikh Hasina on ‘parole’ for two months has generated hope for the stalled political dialogue and uncertainty over the scheduled Parliamentary elections in December 2008. The Awami League (AL) had earlier demanded the unconditional release of Hasina. But it appears that after hectic negotiations between some of the advisors of the Caretaker Government (CTG) and Hasina, a political understanding was worked out that ultimately saw her being freed. It has given hope to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) about the release of their leader as well from jail.

In a disturbing sign, the Chinese seem to have brought up Sikkim and not Arunachal Pradesh back to the table during the recent visit of Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to China. The belief was that China had implicitly recognised Indian sovereignty over Sikkim in 2003, and as such there was no dispute on the matter with China. China’s recognition of Sikkim was interpreted as a quid pro quo for India’s recognition of total Chinese sovereignty over Tibet in 2003.

As the new political dispensation in Pakistan negotiates new deals with militants in the country’s Pakhtoon belt, it is causing consternation among its neighbours. The deals have been signed in Swat Valley, Mardan, Mohmand and Bajour Agency, and in all probability with Baitullah Mehsud the leader of ‘Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’ in Waziristan. However, the Pakistan government would like to retain deniability vis-à-vis the last of these deals, so as not to ruffle too many feathers in the United States or Afghanistan.

Integration of Maoists combatants into the Nepal Army (NA) has become a contentious issue. Despite the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections and the declaration of Nepal as a Republic, a new government has not been formed. The Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) have been demanding adjustments and rehabilitation of the combatants through a proper modality before the CPN-Maoist forms the new government. The Maoists, on other hand, demand ‘collective’ entry of UNMIN-verified armed cadres into the NA.

At a time when the India-China border dispute is hogging the limelight and causing unease in the Indian establishment, many festering inter-state border disputes in the Northeast that are sowing seeds of discord seem to elude the attention of policymakers at the Centre. The issue of inter-state border disputes came to the fore recently, when tensions erupted along the Assam-Meghalaya border following the Assam government’s attempt to lay a foundation stone for a primary health sub-centre at Langpih, a border village claimed by both Assam and Meghalaya.

Sri Lanka’s Eastern province is transitioning to a new era. First came Karuna’s exit and subsequent co-operation with the government in Colombo. This was followed by the expulsion of the Tigers soon thereafter. And the latest is the successful completion of Eastern Provincial Council (EPC) elections on May 10, 2008 and the coming into existence of a democratically elected government under Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan alias Pillayan after two decades of civil conflict.

In the ongoing mass arrests in Bangladesh, nearly 20,000 people have been put behind bars. These arrests started on May 28, 2008 after the ban on political activity was lifted. It was expected that after allowing political activity, the government will facilitate the electoral process leading to the holding of elections which were postponed in January 2007. But the mass arrests in the name of deteriorating law and order condition have made the political situation fluid.

On June 2, terrorists exploded a car-bomb outside the Embassy of Denmark in the high-security diplomatic area of Islamabad. The explosion instantaneously killed eight people, injured more than twenty five and damaged properties in the vicinity. People killed in the attack were mainly Pakistanis, including the local staff at the embassy and a Danish citizen of Pakistani origin. It is not clear how an explosive-laden car was able to enter such a highly-guarded area without detection.

Recent announcements of major arms acquisition programmes by the Indian government must have given a sense of elation to the armed forces, which have been waiting for long for some of this equipment. These announcements also give greater confidence to the nation about the military’s capability to tackle national security challenges. But there are other long term implications of arms procurement largely through import.