Comment & Briefs

The year 2008 started with oil prices touching a historic high of US $100 a barrel. This is partly a reflection of the high demand for energy. Today, many countries are factoring ‘energy’ into their planning, be it hydrocarbons or other forms of energy. But in the case of India it appears that its energy future would be decided more by politics than actual energy needs. In the first week of 2008, an Indian delegation has completed the third round of negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA) on India-specific nuclear safeguards.

There has been a qualitative shift in recent years in the way policy makers perceive borders and border areas. Borders are increasingly being seen as facilitators of easy circulation of goods and people rather physical obstructions. And border regions have transformed from underdeveloped buffer zones to bridges between neighbouring countries. This change in attitude is one factor that has contributed to India’s recent commitment to construct a port in Sittwe.

Uttar Pradesh is emerging as a terror hub in the country. The January 1 attack on a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) camp in Rampur by four militants belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is the latest in a series of terror-related incidents to rack the state during the last year. Six serial blasts were earlier trigged on November 23, 2007 by militants belonging to the Harkat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami (HuJI), targeting the Varanasi court premises, the lawyers’ chambers in Faizabad, and a civil court in Lucknow. Two live bombs were also recovered and subsequently defused.

India opened up its defence industry to the private sector in May 2001, in a move to enhance the country’s ‘defence preparedness’. To give further impetus to this policy, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) came out with new policy measure related to the concepts of private Industry Leaders [or Raksha Udyog Ratnas (RURs)] “Make” procedure, and defence offsets, in its 2006 Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP). With these policy initiatives, the government’s focus seems to have shifted towards the private sector as far as achieving its long-cherished goal of ‘self-reliance’ is concerned.

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007 at an election rally in Rawalpindi raises serious doubts about Pakistan’s peaceful political transition to an era of democratic politics. Eight years of Musharraf’s rule has seen growing fundamentalism, political instability and ethnic disaffection. It was thought that reverting to a troika system would bring about the right balance between a democratically elected leader and the Army, which would help arrest disenchantment and address instability.

While the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has worsened the political turmoil in Pakistan, it has also left in disarray the US policy of attempting to nudge this crucial ally towards a democratic and stable future. The United States underwrote the deal between Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto in the hope that her return to power would lend legitimacy to the former’s increasingly unpopular rule. In Bhutto and her party, the US found moderation and cosmopolitanism – a counterforce to the growing religious extremism in the country.

2007 will be remembered as the year of climate change and high oil prices. Starting with the first of the four reports of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the debate culminated in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the IPCC. Even the ill-fated Bali conference which failed to provide concrete direction to the future of international environmental policy reinforced the need for swift global action to curb carbon emissions.

The Global War on Terror (GWOT), now into its sixth year, has become one of the most expensive wars in American history. GWOT covers three military operations: Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), which broadly covers Afghanistan but ranges from the Philippines to Djibouti; Operation Noble Eagle (ONE), which is meant to provide better security for US military bases and enhanced homeland security; and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) which began with the build-up of troops for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The cost of these operations has phenomenally increased over the years.

General Asfaq Pervez Kayani’s elevation as the 14th Pakistan Army Chief of Staff in November has been treated in the Indian media as a relatively low key affair. The General has been projected as a Musharraf ‘loyalist’ positioned primarily to retain Musharraf’s influence and hold on the Army. But transitions, particularly in Pakistan’s military etablishment, have rarely followed any given pattern and it can be expected of Gen Kiyani to initiate some new policy direction.

Muslim countries and Islamic relief organisations along with the rest of the world have shown unprecedented solidarity with the people of Bangladesh after the devastating impact of cyclone Sidr in mid-November. Ironically, many of these Islamic charitable organizations have been involved in fuelling fundamentalism in Bangladesh. The extremist forces, and not surprisingly, are once again trying to capitalize on the miseries of the people and the inadequacies of the state machinery.