Maj. Gen. (Dr.) G.G. Dwivedi, SM, VSM & BAR (retd.) was Defence Attaché in China, Mongolia and North Korea; has commanded a Division in the North East.
The ISIS may be down but not out as it is in the process of regrouping. A large number of their cadres are known to have survived. Any relaxation of pressure will give ISIS room for manoeuvre and ability to garner support of local allies.
The current impasse in Hong Kong poses the most serious challenge to the Chinese leadership since the territory’s integration with the mainland. The “One Country, Two Systems” arrangement appears to be at crossroads, set to be consigned to the archives well before its expiry date.
While still in the evolution stage, BRI has the potential to be a game changer in China’s quest to shape a ‘Sino-Centric’ Global Order.
There is an urgent need to formulate a ‘Counter Proxy War Doctrine’ that integrates diplomacy, defence, development and other tools of hard and soft power.
While the US may be able to ensure the security of its homeland, it is bound to gradually yield strategic space to China in the region. All said, prevailing alignments in the region are in for a definite reset.
While the recent Korean Summit marks the beginning of the new era, to achieve lasting peace will require intense diplomatic efforts.
Xi rides the Dragon which is externally formidable but internally fragile. He is aware of the consequences of his policies going awry.
Xi envisions China as a key player in shaping the new global order with Chinese characteristics. His grand strategy is in consonance with the Chinese strategic culture of ‘thinking deep and far’
While the crisis has been defused for the time being, the probability of a future flare up cannot be ruled out. A holistic strategic review ought to be carried out over a wide spectrum and in a multi-dimensional manner with specific timelines.