Shebonti Ray Dadwal

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Archive data: Person was Consultant at IDSA

Shebonti Ray Dadwal is consultant at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP_IDSA) where she heads the Non-Traditional Security Centre. Prior to joining MP-IDSA, she served as Deputy Secretary at the National Security Council Secretariat, and was also Senior Editor with The Financial Express.
Her research focus is on Energy Security. She has several peer-reviewed articles and papers focusing on Energy Security, including a monograph on The Geopolitics of America’s Energy Independence: Implications for China, India and the Global Energy Market, and a book Rethinking Energy Security in India (2002). Her second book The Geopolitics of Gas: Common problems, Disparate Strategies is ready for publication. She has also co-edited a book Non-Traditional Security Challenges in Asia: Approaches and Responses, published by Routledge in 2015, and co-authored the IDSA Report on Security Implications of Climate Change for India (2009).
She is a member of the CSCAP Study Group on Energy Security as well as member of the Core Group on Myanmar of the MEA’s Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA). In April 2009, she was awarded a Chevening Fellowship by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the UK on completion of a course in Economics of Energy at the Institute for Energy Research and Policy, University of Birmingham, UK. She is also a member of the Editorial Board of IDSA’s flagship journal Strategic Analysis.

Consultant
Email:- srdadwal[at]gmail[dot]com
Phone:- +91 11 2671 7983

Publication

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The Geopolitics of America’s Energy Independence: Implications for China, India and the Global Energy Market

The US' claim that it will become energy independent shortly on the back of the revolution in its shale resources technology has been followed by Washington's announcement of its 'rebalancing to Asia' policy. This monograph looks at the sustainability of the shale revolution, and whether the US' claims are indeed justified and the geopolitical consequences and strategic implications thereof on the global energy scenario.

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Non-Traditional Security Challenges in Asia: Approaches and Responses

  • Publisher: Pentagon Press
    2015

Asia is challenged by a number of non-traditional security issues including the food–energy–water nexus, climate change, transnational crime, terrorism, disaster relief and economic performance. This volume categorizes and clarifies some key emerging issues in the area and looks at their interconnectedness and implications.

  • ISBN 978-11-3889-253-8,
  • Price: $110.00/-

  • Published: 2015
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Asian Strategic Review 2017: Energy Security in Times of Uncertainty

  • Publisher: Pentagon Press
    2018

The world is entering an era with increased global demand for energy, price volatility, and rising concerns about environmental burdens and the global impact of climate change. Directly or indirectly, these factors have given rise to related concerns such as deregulation and geopolitical uncertainties. Moreover, the challenges related to the energy issue go beyond scientific or technological aspects and extend to access to resources, regional conflicts, pricing and energy infrastructure management.

  • ISBN: 78-93-86618-28-3,
  • Price: ₹ 795/- , $27.95/-
  • E-copy available

  • Published: 2018
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Climate Change and State Responses

The spectre of climate change and increased global warming has spurred more action in recent years. However, with the global economic outlook not likely to pick up any time soon, the temptation to opt for cheaper but dirtier fuels could further complicate the climate change negotiations.

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COVID-19 and OPEC+ Deal

The prevailing environment has underlined the importance of a balanced market to the oil producers. India has been consistently reiterating the need for oil to be priced responsibly to ensure the stability of the oil market.

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The Abqaiq Attack – Fallout on Oil Market

While there is no immediate shortage of oil as the market is balanced for the time being, there are growing concerns about potential conflict in the region leading to supply disruption and resultant price spike, affecting the already nervous market sentiment.

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China’s Continuing Rare Earth Dominance

Given China’s stated policy of using its rare earth dominance for strategic purposes, countries have been looking for ways to diversify their sources of supply. India too needs to acquire expertise in valorising rare earth minerals and shift to developing its downstream sector.

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Slippery, but this ain’t crude


Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy
Director General, IDSA
Click here for detailed profile

Shebonti Ray Dadwal
Former Senior Fellow, IDSA
Click here for detailed profile

Crude oil prices have firmed up after the Significant Reduction Exemption (SRE) waiver granted by the US to eight nations, including India, allowing them to import gradually diminishing quantities of oil from Iran, ended on May 2. The hardening of prices is inevitable if additional oil supplies do not reach the market to compensate for the approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (mbd) reduction in Iranian oil.

Iranian supplies had risen to 2.5 mbd after the sanctions were lifted in the wake of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The US aim is to put pressure on Iran by cutting off its oil revenue, and speculation is rife that a key objective is to effect regime change.

Not Well-Oiled

Although US President Donald Trump has stated that Saudi Arabia and the UAE can make up any shortfall up to 2 mbd, the loss of Venezuelan and Libyan supplies may also have to be factored in.

Russia has made it clear that it will not increase output. There are conflicting reports whether the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will enhance production. Saudi Arabia is reportedly capable of meeting the increased demand, though it would be loath to see any price slump. As for the US, it is already exporting 2.5 mbd and may not be able to pick up the slack on its own.

There is speculation that China will continue to source oil from Iran through barter trade. Apart from being the world’s largest importer of oil and a vital supplier of oil and gas modules, China is also a key geostrategic player in the global energy markets with strong ties to all major producers. China is unlikely to fall in line with the US demand and risk its credibility, particularly at a time when tensions with the US are on the rise and China is making every effort to provide an alternative narrative on developmental issues.

China may be willing to consider yuan-denominated transactions or barter trade with Iran, with the latter getting Chinese goods, machinery and perhaps even arms in return. This may help China keep intact its own prestige and ties with Iran, while keeping its banking and financial institutions outside the pale of US retaliation.

India imported 23.5 million tonnes of Iranian oil in 2018-19, making it its third-largest source of crude. India has not contracted any oil from Iran for May. Unlike many others in Asia, Indian refineries are technically capable of processing all grades of crude.

Being a coveted market, many countries, including Iran’s Opec rivals as well as the US, have offered to fill any gap left by Iranian oil. But other suppliers may not provide the same credit and insurance facilities as Iran does.

Moreover, with ongoing general elections, the government can ill-afford a rise in oil prices and consequent increase in the oil import bill, or any potential downward pressure on the value of the Indian rupee. It is expected that around 200,000-300,000 barrels per day of rebranded Iranian oil will find its way to markets through ‘friendly’ countries.

Iran has also taken steps to ensure that its oil remains attractive by offering to settle payments in its own currency (rial) or in foreign currency other than the US dollar, that too at discounted rates through the Iran Oil Exchange (Irenex).

By the barrelful

Further, it offers the option of allowing small private firms to evacuate the oil through smaller cargoes, thus circumventing the involvement of Iran’s oil ministry with which major companies may be reluctant to do business. Buyers would subsequently be in a position to export Iranian cargoes to any other country.

There is speculation that President Trump might yet extend the waiver on a case-by-case basis. According to some analysts, certain countries may be allowed to place future orders for Iranian oil. They might then be allowed to insure, transport and refine Iranian oil allowed under the 2012 Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act, which provides legal authority to impose sanctions on Iran’s petroleum industry and foreign countries that do business with it, but also allows for penalties to be waived.

The situation remains fluid, with a number of possibilities. What appears clear is that China is most unlikely to fall in line.

While India is not as large a player as China in the oil market, it does have key geostrategic objectives in the region. Foremost among these would be the need to continue to maintain traditionally friendly relations with Iran.

This would require India to tread a fine line and continue to balance its ties with both Iran and the US on the one hand, and with Iran and Saudi Arabia on the other. This will only be possible if India continues to source some oil from Iran in the future, the US withdrawal of the SRE waiver notwithstanding.

This article was originally published in Economic Times

  • Published: 8 May, 2019