The Asian Security Conference (ASC) is a major calendar event of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi. Since 1999, when the conference was first held, the ASC has emerged as an important platform for debating issues relating to Asian security. For the last ten years, the ASC has been providing a forum for security analysts, ministers and diplomats from around the world to share their views on the challenges facing the Asian continent. The eleventh in this series is being held to probe the issue of “The Changing Face of Conflict and Evolving Strategies in Asia.”

While there is now a general acknowledgement that Asia is becoming the new centre of gravity in international politics, it is also true that the present juncture represents a period of uncertainty. Firstly, the interests of five major powers – those of the predominant United States, a resurgent Russia, a rising China, a normalising Japan, and an emerging India – intersect in Asia. Four of these countries possess nuclear weapons and Japan not only enjoys the protection afforded by the American nuclear umbrella but also has the necessary wherewithal to go nuclear once it makes a determination to this effect. Though peaceful relations currently prevail among them all partly fuelled by economic interdependence and partly a result of the existing correlation of forces, potential sources of conflict lie beneath the surface in the form of unresolved territorial disputes and national and geopolitical rivalries. Could these eventually result in rival alliances, arms races and even open war? Or, given growing economic interdependence, the presence of nuclear weapons and the extreme destructiveness of modern war, is war among major powers unlikely?

Secondly, current trends indicate that conflicts are largely confined to the intra-state level (civil wars, insurgencies and terrorism), and that non-traditional and transnational security challenges like energy security, climate change, pandemics, natural disasters, maritime piracy, etc. are the more dominant motifs of international security. Are we then witnessing a transformation in war?

Given the uncertainty of the evolving security environment, marked as it is by underlying rivalries and unresolved territorial disputes on one hand and a host of non-traditional and transnational challenges on the other, the strategy of key players in Asia in dealing with the multiple challenges facing them needs to be studied. It is broadly understood that Strategy, or Grand Strategy if you will, involves marshalling the resources of a nation (or a coalition of nations), including the armed forces, towards the goal of protecting, promoting and securing vital interests against adversaries or rivals. It is from this perspective that the strategies of key players in Asia (China, India, Japan, Russia and the United States) would be looked at, based on the understanding that the manner in which their strategies interact will fundamentally determine issues of war and peace and the contours of the international order in coming years.

Given the vagaries and uncertainties inherent in international politics as well as the imperative of technological development and evolution, all major powers as well as key players in Asia are naturally engaged in modernising their militaries. In order to provide a solid foundation for the discussion, individual case studies have been identified. The discussion will begin with a paper on the evolution of China’s military doctrine. It will be followed by a study on the U.S. Air Force and the changing dimensions of air power. The maritime dimension of Asian security will be explored through a study on the Indian Navy. And given the prominence of insurgencies and the threat of terrorism in the current international security situation, this dimension of conflict will be covered by a study on the counter-insurgency strategy being employed in Afghanistan.

Three other specific dimensions of future conflict in Asia are also emerging. The first is the emerging trend towards militarization of space. China became the third country in the world to send an astronaut into space in October 2003. It also showcased its anti-satellite capabilities in January 2007 by shooting down one of its own old satellites. The United States, which had earlier withdrawn from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2001, followed suit with an ASAT test of its own in February 2008. Apprehensions caused by these trends have led India, which has so far pursued only peaceful applications of space technology, to set up an Integrated Space Cell to be jointly operated by its armed forces and its space research organisation. Japan enacted a Space Law in June 2008, which has changed the interpretation of peaceful uses of outer space from ‘non-military’ to ‘non-aggressive’. Are we then witnessing a new space race involving the United States, China, Japan and India? And what role would space technology play in future wars?

Another technological pursuit that would have fundamental implications in the years to come is the quest for ballistic missile defences, principally by the United States. Though ostensibly meant to cater for threats from ‘rogue’ states, it will also have obvious utility against China, for instance, which at present deploys only about 20 ICBMs capable of reaching the continental United States. Japan has a robust co-operation programme on missile defence with the United States. India too has been showing interest in deploying missile defences. What would be the impact of ballistic missile defence systems on nuclear deterrence?

Third, even as economies and militaries are becoming increasingly networked to benefit from information technology, the vulnerabilities of these networks are becoming evident with reports of cyber attacks. This new dimension of cyber space will also be discussed in the conference. Finally, the conference will also focus on the prospects for the structuring of an Asian security architecture. Two contrasting approaches to evolving a security architecture can be envisaged. One involves structuring a balance of power involving major and key minor powers in Asia. And the second is a co-operative framework, exemplified by the ARF. Both these approaches will be analysed.

Over the last decade, the IDSA, through the medium of the Asian Security Conference, has had the honour and privilege of providing a forum for leading policymakers and security analysts from around the world to share and discuss their thoughts and insights on the evolving security environment in Asia. Our endeavour is to advance knowledge about the pressing security issues and challenges in Asia as well as help bridge the gap between knowledge and policy. We hope to contribute through this conference to a better understanding of the security dimensions of a rising Asia and its impact on the international order.

DAY 1, February 03, 2009

Registration: 0830 hrs

Inaugural Session: 0900 – 0940 hrs

Tea: 0940 – 1000 hrs

• Welcome Remarks – Shri Narendra Singh Sisodia, Director-General IDSA
• Keynote Address – Shri A.K. Antony, President of IDSA & Defence Minister of India
• Conferment of the K. Subrahmanyam Award
• Book Release
• Vote of Thanks – Dr. Thomas Mathew, Deputy Director-General, IDSA

Session 1: Conflict and Strategy (1000 – 1230 hrs)

Chair: V. P. Malik

• Regular and Irregular War – Lawrence Freedman
• The Conflict in Afghanistan and the Evolution of Counter-insurgency Strategy – Rod Thornton
• Thinking Strategically – John Warden

Discussant: V. Krishnappa

Lunch: 1230 – 1330 hrs

Session 2: Asian Hotspots and American Security Strategy (1330 – 1515 hrs)

Chair: Satish Chandra

• The Emerging Security Dynamic in West Asia – Hilal Khashan
• The US Global War on Terrorism in Afghanistan-Pakistan: An Assessment – Christine Fair
• How to get Asia-Pacific Policy Right?: Recommendations for the Obama Administration – Ralph Cossa

Discussant: Alok Bansal

Tea: 1515 – 1530 hrs

Session 3: Military Modernisation and Asian Security (1530 – 1730 hrs)

Chair: Jasjit Singh

• Patterns of Doctrine in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army: From Threats to Contingencies to Capabilities – Paul Godwin
• The Indian Navy: Oceanic and Coastal Security Imperatives – Rahul Roy-Choudhury
• The U.S. Air Force and the Changing Face of Air Power – Benjamin Lambeth

Discussant: Arvind Dutta

Day 2, February 04, 2009

Session 4: Technology and Asian Security (0915 – 1115 hrs)

Chair: Ashok Parthasarathi

• Is There a New Space Race in Asia?: Different Perceptions for Space – Kazuto Suzuki
• Who’s Afraid of Missile Defence? – Rajesh Basrur
• The Strategic Impact of BMD in South Asia – Dean Wilkening

Discussant: Rajiv Nayan

Tea: 1115 – 1130 hrs

Session 5: Security Strategies of Major Powers in Asia (1130 – 1330 hrs)

Chair: Rajiv Sikri

• Energy Security in Asia: Central Asian and Russian Roles in Meeting Asian Gas Demands – Ivan Safranchuk
• “A Harmonious World” and China’s “New Diplomacy” – Yuan Peng
• Japan’s Security Policy in an Uncertain World: Evolution and Innovation – Lam Peng Er
• India’s Evolving Security Strategy – S. Kalyanaraman

Discussant: P. Stobdan

Lunch: 1330 – 1430 hrs

Session 6: Towards an Asian Security Architecture (1430 – 1630 hrs)

Chair: Madhu Bhalla

• The Rise of Asia and the International Order – Sujit Dutta
• Balance of Power and the Role of Major Powers – Varun Sahni
• A Co-operative Security Order in Asia – Susan Sim

Discussant: Abanti Bhattacharya