West Asia is in the midst of tumultuous changes which presage the emergence of a new and different set of security and economic challenges and new patterns of relationships, both within the region and with countries having major stakes and interests in the region.

Though the region has witnessed turbulence for several decades, there was, perhaps surprisingly, considerable domestic stability within individual countries mainly due to the relatively unchallengeable control that regimes exercised over their populations. However, quite unexpectedly, there has been an unprecedented popular upsurge against the ruling regimes in many countries in the Arab world during the last few years, leading to regime changes in certain cases. Characterised by outside observers as the “Arab Spring”, some regional commentators have expressed their concerns about the developments, terming these as the “Arab Turmoil”. The essence of the socio-political tumult sweeping the region has been such that the people at large have overcome their fear of the existing regimes and called for drastic and fundamental political transformation, including regime change. This has led to dramatic changes in domestic political environments in most of the countries of the region.

Another major consequence is that the sectarian divide, which has long been an issue within the Islamic world and particularly in the Gulf region, has flared up acutely between the Gulf Arab States and Iran over the past two years. The fallout of this growing confrontation is reflected throughout West Asia and in Syria in particular. Intervention by non-regional powers has only compounded problems. The Gulf region has, therefore, become the primary hub of attention and concern in West Asia.

The most emblematic feature of the global scenario of the past three decades has been the fact that Asia is in the process of displacing the West as the fulcrum of the global economy, and China and India are its leading locomotives. The major Asian economies, both developed and still developing, have collectively become the largest purchasers of hydrocarbons from the Gulf region. Their demands are projected to keep increasing substantially. The Gulf region’s role as an energy supplier for Asia will, therefore, continue to enlarge incrementally for the foreseeable future, even as America’s and Europe’s requirements of oil and gas from the Gulf region are projected to diminish dramatically. Indeed, even beyond the hydrocarbons factor, other links of trade, investment and huge migrations of people, albeit temporary, between the Gulf region and the rest of Asia have been growing rapidly; and all this suggest that Asia’s overall economic relationship between the Gulf region is also poised to overtake that with the Western world.

The net result is that stronger strategic synergies in the fields of energy, economic and people-to-people relations among the Asian countries and countries of the Gulf region are making the latter an integral part of the unfolding Asian growth story. Therefore, on the one hand, the significance of its connections with the rest of Asia is a strategic factor of growing importance for the Gulf region; on the other, peace and stability in the Gulf region are becoming factors of increasing strategic, and even existential, significance for the major Asian countries.

Against this backdrop, the 15th annual Asian Security Conference (ASC) held at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, will deliberate on the major economic, socio-political and strategic trends which are unfolding in the West Asian region in general, and its Gulf region in particular, in the context of their security and economic implications both for the region and for Asian countries. Given Asia’s increasing interest and involvement with the region, the security and stability of West Asia has become a vital imperative for Asian countries. Therefore, the special theme of the 15th ASC would be to explore the possibilities of the involvement of Asian countries in the changing and evolving security dynamics and architecture of the Gulf region.

The conference will address these issues under eight sessions as listed below.

I Political Transformation in West Asia: Prospects for Peace, Stability and Prosperity

The session intends to address the following questions:

• What are the root causes of political transformation in West Asia?
• What are the economic, political, religious/sectarian, social, foreign policy-related, etc., factors responsible for the popular protests against the rulers?
• How can we analyse current domestic scenarios, including the outcomes till date, explaining the unique features of recent events in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen?

II Future of Political Transformation in West Asia

This session is expected to address the prospects for democracy, the role of political Islam, the consequences of the sectarian divide, the requirements for nation building, etc., in specific domestic contexts as well as their impact on inter-state relations in West Asia. In this context, the session will deliberate on the following:

• Are further regime changes likely?
• What will be the impact of the rise of Islamists to power on the region and beyond?
• What are the new challenges before the countries/people under the new regimes in place?

Though Egypt, Syria and Yemen would be specifically considered here, the potential impact in the energy-rich Gulf Kingdoms will also be examined, as it would have enormous implications for the world at large, thus meriting particular focus.

III & IV West Asia’s Security Dynamics-I: Role of Extra Regional Powers; West Asia’s Security Dynamics II: Role of Regional Powers

This session would discuss the security implications of evolving events from the perspectives of Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two pre-eminent regional players, bearing in mind the current security architecture in the region. Interests and roles of major powers and other non-regional countries would also be the focus of deliberations during this session. It will address, in particular, the roles of the US, Russia, China, Turkey, Egypt and Israel. Some important questions addressed during this session would include:

• What are the interests and stakes of these powers in the region?
• How would their actions and likely policies affect the evolution of the geopolitical contours of West Asia, bearing in mind the current security architecture in the region?

V India and the Gulf:

India shares with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries cultural commonalities and compatibilities, geographical proximity and 5,000 years of continuous, close and unbroken interaction. Furthermore, in contrast to most world powers, India has never sought domination or influence, either politically or territorially, or with respect to economic and natural resources in this region. It may also be pertinent to note here that India has the world’s third-largest Muslim population.

The GCC countries constitute India’s largest socio-economic partner, as manifested by five sets of facts: (1) almost 6.5 million people from India live and work in the GCC countries and constitute about 35 per cent of the total expatriate population, making them the foreign nationality of first preference in this region overall as well as in each GCC country, and the largest chunk of Indian nationals in any region abroad. (2) About $32 billion were sent home as remittances last year, the largest from any part of the world. (3) The GCC countries are India’s largest trade partner with trade in 2011–12 being about $120 billion, far outstripping the financial volumes of such ties with any other region of the world. (4) They supply 63 per cent of India’s hydrocarbon imports. (5) Over 50 per cent of flight connections between India and the world are between India and the GCC countries.

The past decade has seen an explosion of high-level political interaction and the emergence of strategically significant relationships. No major country has an even remotely comparable basket of linkages with the GCC countries; this simply cannot be matched by any major power in the world.

Moving beyond dwelling on these aspects alone, this session would explore:

• How can India further strengthen its relations with the Gulf region?
• What are the possible pitfalls?
• What are the expectations of the countries of the region from India and vice versa, and are there any divergences in mutual expectations?
• How can India and the countries of the region forge strategies of cooperation in new areas of mutual concern such as defence and security?

VI Nuclear Issues in West Asia

One of the major international security concerns over the past decade has been about the Iranian nuclear programme and responses to it by countries like the US and Israel. While Iranian engagement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Permanent 5+1 in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) continues, no mutually acceptable formula has yet been arrived at to address these concerns. The future contours of developments relating to the issue will have major repercussions on regional strategic stability. The responses of Iran’s neighbours as well as major powers like the US will be crucial, given the extant security and trust deficits. The Iran issue as well as Israeli nuclear capabilities adds to the complexities in progressing towards a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ) in West Asia. The session will seek to explore dynamics related to these issues in an area of critical importance to India’s economic and strategic well-being. Some of the questions that will be explored include those discussed below.

• What is the status of Iranian engagement with the international community over its suspected nuclear programme, including at the IAEA, UNSC, P5+1, and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), among others?
• What have been the policy responses of Iran’s neighbourhood to its suspected nuclear programme?
• What is the possibility of success of efforts geared towards establishing a Middle East WMDFZ?
• What have been the repercussions for India as a result of the developments relating to the Iranian nuclear issue? And, what will be the likely challenges in the foreseeable future?

VII Round Table: Role of Asia in Evolving Security Dynamics and Architecture of the Gulf Region

The session will explore possibilities of involvement of Asian countries in the changing and evolving security dynamics and architecture of the Gulf region.

VIII Panel Discussion on Way Ahead

The region is in unprecedented flux; it could witness considerably more churning and yet more regime changes. In this context, this session will explore the possible impact of these uncertainties, including drawing up alternative plausible scenarios on India’s future relationships with the Gulf region.

Some important questions that would be considered are:

• What could be possible options of enhancing the strategic engagement of Asian countries with this strategically important region in future?
• Should India remain content with a strong economic relationship with the region, or should it play a more pro-active role?
• What are the major trends in the Gulf security situation?
• What is the current level of engagement/involvement of regional and extra-regional powers in the West Asian region?
• How is the Iranian nuclear programme going to impact the security dynamics of the region?
• What will be the response of regional and extra-regional players in future?
• Will there be new set of re-alignments among regional partners?
• Will US, Russia and China cooperate in future or engage in escalating confrontation?
• Will regional security paradigms change? What would be the likely changes?
• What will be the security implications of the changing energy scenario—fluctuating oil prices, the phenomenon of shale oil, among others?

Day 1: Wednesday, February 13, 2013

0900-0930h: Registration & Tea

0930-1030h: Inaugural Session
Welcome Remarks by Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director General, IDSA
Key Note Address by Hon’ble Raksha Mantri
Vote of Thanks: Brig. (Retd.) Rumel Dahiya, Deputy Director General, IDSA

1030-1100h: High Tea

 

1100-1300h: Session I: Political Transformation in West Asia: Prospects for Peace, Stability and Prosperity

Chair: Amb. Chinmaya Gharekhan
Amb. Talmiz Ahmad: Islamist Discourse and Politics in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring
Dr. Ahmed al Wahishi:
West Asia in Transitional Period of International Order
Dr. Hadi Soleimanpour: Political Transformation in West Asia: An Iranian Perspective
Prof. Tim Niblock: The Future of Political Transformation in West Asia

 

1300-1400h: Lunch

1400-1600h: Session II: Future of Political Transformation in West Asia

Chair: Prof. Gulshan Dietl
Dr. Muhammad Abdul Ghaffar: Potential Strategic Cooperation among Pivotal States in Western Asia
Mr. Atul Aneja: Silencing Alternative Media: Soft Power and the Arab Spring
Dr. Ahmed A. Saif: Emerging Trends in West Asia: Regional and Global Implications
Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla: Impact of the Arab Spring on the Arab Gulf States

Prof. Amin Saikal: The Changing Political and Strategic Environment in West Asia

 

1600-1630h: Tea

1630-1830h: Session III: West Asia’s Security Dynamics-I: Role of Extra-Regional Powers

Chair: Amb. Rajendra Madhukar Abhyankar
Mr. Fyodor Lukyanov: Russia and “Arab spring”: What’s at Stake?
Dr. Julie Taylor: US Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Combatting the Realist Resurgence
Prof. Yang Guang: West Asia’s Security Dynamics: A Chinese Perspective
Mr. Waiel Awwad: The New Great Power Game Plan in West Asia
Mr. M. Ashraf Azim: Stabilizing West Asia
Prof. P R Kumaraswamy: Realpolitik of the ‘Self-Appointed Frontrunner’ for the UNSC

 

Day 2: Thursday, February 14, 2013

0930-1000h: Tea

1000-1245 h: Session IV: West Asia’s Security Dynamics-II: Role of Regional Powers

Chair: Amb. Ranjit Gupta
Prof. Efraim Inbar: The 2011 Arab Uprisings and Israel’s National Security
Prof. Mohammad Hassan Khani: Arab Spring as National Revolutions with Regional Dimensions and Global Impacts: An Iranian Perspective
Dr. Serhat Güvenç: Role of Turkey in West Asia’s Security Dynamics
Dr. Adel Soliman: Dynamic Security in West Asia and the Role of Regional Powers: An Egyptian
Perspective

 

1245-1345h: Lunch

1430-1630h: Session V: India and the Gulf

Chair: Amb. Ishrat Aziz
Prof. Girijesh Pant: Premising India-Gulf Relation in the Context of Arab Uprising
Ms. Shebonti Ray Dadwal:Impact of ‘Arab Spring’ on Energy Markets
Dr. Sami Alfaraj:India and the GCC
Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla: ndia and the Gulf: A Perspective from UAE

 

1545-1600h: Tea

1600-1745h: Session VI: Nuclear Issues in West Asia

Chair: Air Commodore (Retd.) Jasjit Singh, AVSM, VRC, VM, IAF
Dr. Mahmoud Karem:Nuclear Issues in West Asia: Egyptian Perspective
Prof. Rajesh Rajagopalan: Nuclear Issues in West Asia: An Indian Perspective
Dr. Ephraim Kam: The Iranian Nuclear Threat
Prof. Mohammad Hassan Khani:Iranian Nuclear Issue: Different Views, Scenarios, and Consequences

 

 

Day 3: Friday, February 15, 2013

0930-1000h: Tea

1000-1030h: Special Address by Shri Shivshankar Menon, National Security Adviser, Government of India

1030-1045h: Tea

1045-1245h: Session VII: Roundtable on Role of Asia in Evolving Security Dynamics and Architecture of the Gulf Region

Chair: Shri Sanjay Singh
Prof. Timothy C. Niblock: The Role of Asia in the Evolving Security Dynamics and Architecture of the Gulf Region
Amb. Ranjit Gupta: Role of Asia in the Evolving Security Dynamics of the Gulf Region
Amb. Talmiz Ahmad: Islamist Discourse and Politics in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring

 

1245-1330h: Lunch

1330-1500h: Session VIII: Panel Discussion on Way Ahead

Chair: Dr. Arvind Gupta
Panellists:
Shri Rajeev Shahare, Joint Secretary, West Asia and North Africa Division (WANA), Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India
Shri A R Ghanashyam, Joint Secretary, Gulf Division, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India
Brig. (Retd.) Rumel Dahiya, Deputy Director General, IDSA
Amb. Ishrat Aziz
Prof. Mohammad Hassan Khani
Dr. Sami Alfaraj
Amb. Talmiz Ahmad
Dr. Adel Soliman
Amb. Prakash Shah

 

1530h: Vote of Thanks: Dr. Meena Singh Roy, Conference Coordinator