Cmde. Abhay K. Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Wagner Insurrection and Its Impact on the Ukraine War” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 03 July 2023 at 10AM. The venue was Seminar Hall 1, Second Floor, MP-IDSA. The session was moderated by Col. Vivek Chaddha (Retd.), Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Since 1992, Private Military Companies (PMCs) have been active in Russia. Among the estimated 37 PMCs in Russia, Wagner Group is the largest PMC and has been employed since its formation in 2013-14. They were primarily used to protect the Russian assets in Africa and were influential in furthering Russia’s influence in conflict-zones such as Syria, Mali, Central African Republic (CAR) and others. They also played a significant role in Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine War, the Wagner Group’s case is essential in understanding the role of PMCs in conventional warfare.

Detailed Report

Col. Vivek Chaddha (Retd.) offered a brief overview on Private Military Companies (PMCs) and their influence on foreign affairs, war effort and domestic politics of Russia. In this context, the moderator observed that there were more questions than answers and that this also offers important lessons for the countries that are tempted to use these agencies in their war effort and beyond. Following this introduction, Col. Chaddha requested Cmde. Abhay K.Singh to shed light on the topic.

The speaker gave a brief account of the Wagner Group since its formation and mentioned that it is not a registered company but is a holding company that has its footprint in fields ranging from mining, construction to luxury, media and military functions. The speaker also noted that for the past 10 years, the Russian Parliament has been attempting to introduce regulations on PMCs but has remained unsuccessful.

The Wagner Group was established by Dimitriy Valeryevich Utkin, former military personnel, and the top leadership has had a significant influence on it, the speaker explained. The current commander, Yevgeny Prigozhin had served 10 years in prison before undertaking the leadership of Wagner. In addition, the speaker elaborated that he was a caterer of President Putin in 2003. He also received government contracts through Concord Management in 2010 and school contracts in 2012. In 2013-14, Wagner was formed under a project of GRU in Molkina Base, Rostov-on-Don, the speaker added.

Moving further, the speaker underlined the relationship between the Wagner Group and the Russian State. The finances and equipments for the Wagner Group were provided by the GRU and several personnel were also seconded from the Russian Special Services. However, Russia denies its association with Wagner. The speaker noted that Wagner was provided with about 6% of the Russia’s defence budget. Their role was mainly witnessed in the Crimean Referendum.  

The speaker highlighted that in 2015, the US and Russia agreed to not deploy their troops directly in Syria. However, when Russia’s Wagner Group was seen in Syria, the US dropped bombs and hotline was utilised for communication. The speaker underscored that about 82 troops of Wagner were killed in this endeavour. The Wagner group was also accused of human rights violations. Between 2015 and 2022, the Wagner Group was deployed in Africa, Libya, CAR and other places.

In the context of the Ukraine War, the speaker elaborated that the Wagner Group was initially involved in an attempt to assassinate the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, between May-August 2022, about 1000 troops were deployed in Popasna, Bakhmut and others as a part of Russian offensive, the speaker added.

The speaker reiterated that the brutal tactics employed and lack of concern for human life were the reasons behind their successes. Additionally, capturing Bakhmut turned into a prestige issue. During this time, the differences between Wagner and the Russian State amplified and when the Russian MoD asked all PMCs to sign a contract, nearly all PMCs with the exception of Wagner signed it. Subsequently, the Wagner Group’s rebellion was met with resistance from the Russian Air Force.

In his concluding remarks, the speaker deliberated on the impact of the Wagner Group on the Ukraine War, especially after its integration with the Russian Military. Questions on command and control, challenges among the Russian troops with regard to trust, morale and cohesion, internal division among the Russian leadership and Ukraine’s counter offensive were also brought up by the speaker.

Following this presentation, Col. Vivek Chaddha thanked Cmde. Abhay K. Singh for his presentation and reflected on the impact of Wagner on the overall war effort in the Russia -Ukraine War, given the lack of military ethos and discipline of the former convicts who are integrated into the Russian Army. The moderator also added that the ability of the West and Ukraine to utilise this major crack will be interesting to observe in the future and opened the floor for comments and questions from the audience.

During the discussion, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy thanked the speaker for his presentation and explained that it provides a clear impression that the Wagner Group was created as an alternative army by Russia to bypass international laws and the geographical proximity of the deployment may not have been well considered. Questions on impact of Wagner, Putin’s position post this incident and Wagner’s influence in Africa, were raised. Maj. Gen (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) highlighted that the main advantage of employing the Wagner Group was deniability and outsourcing of work and asked the speaker why India does not have any PMCs, especially when it has valuable assets in Africa. Dr. Adil Rasheed raised a question about Jihadist Militia replacing the Wagner Group in Chechnya. Dr. Rajorshi Roy shared his observations on the domestic politics of Russia, Russia’s motivations for pursuing this proxy war with the West and possible institutional change that may occur in Russia. Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd) commented on the employment of the Wagner Group as a tool of hybrid warfare to further Russia’s policies and shed light on the human resource problem in Russia for military recruitment. Dr. Rajiv Nayan asked the speaker about the nomenclature used for PMCs, strength of Wagner after partial integration into Russian Army and issues with command and control. Dr. Om Prakash Das asked the speaker about the alleged digital means used in the disinformation and misinformation campaign in the US elections as well as Ukraine War. Dr. Swasti Rao highlighted that it was economical to employ PMCs, yet it makes state machinery appear weak as there has been no statement released from the President and no charges have been put against Wagner mutineers. Dr. Rao also asked the speaker what the responses were from other countries such as Iran and China. Dr. Anand Kumar pointed out that it would be difficult for Russia to replace the Wagner Group in Mali and others. Dr. Israel Nyaburi Nyadera asked the speaker about Africa’s position on the Wagner Group.

Cmde. Abhay K. Singh responded to all comments and questions with insightful remarks and Col. Vivek Chaddha concluded the meeting by thanking everyone for their participation.

Key Takeaways

• The Wagner Group is a PMC based in Russia and has been deployed in Africa, Syria, and others to safeguard Russian assets.
• The primary reason for Wagner’s success has been its brutal tactics and lack of regard for human life.
• The Russian State has denied its association with the Wagner Group.
• Due to Wagner Group’s rebellion, Russia’s domestic politics and Vladimir Putin’s position as the President has been put in question.
• Using PMCs for furthering State policies offers them deniability and is economical.
• Integration of Wagner troops into the Russian Army has left a major crack in their war effort, giving chances for Ukraine and the West to exploit.
• The Wagner Group’s deployment in the Ukraine War has raised several questions on the role of PMCs in conventional war.

Report prepared by Ms. Vidya Paragi, Intern, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA.