Dr Arvind Gupta, Director General, IDSA,
Dr. D. Ganbat, Director, Institute for Strategic Studies, Ulaanbataar,
H. E. Ambassador Bayaraa,
Excellencies,
Distinguished scholars and friends,

I am truly delighted to be here this morning for the second round of the IDSA-ISS Dialogue.

The theme you have chosen for today’s discussions, “Emerging International Strategic Dynamics”, is both extremely interesting and of great topical relevance. The international strategic landscape is evolving faster and in more complex ways than ever. This is particularly true of Asia. In our own ways India and Mongolia are agents of some of the changes that are taking place. We are also impacted directly by fast moving developments in our near and extended neighbourhood. This Dialogue is thus also timely and important for both our countries.

India and Mongolia have extremely warm and friendly relations, both at the inter-governmental level and also in terms of cultural and people to people exchanges. I have always sensed great warmth and cordiality in my interactions with Mongolian officials and leaders and I am sure that my Mongolian colleagues will agree that the reverse is equally true.

Over the past few years, we have imparted greater content and strategic orientation to our Comprehensive Partnership through institutionalised cooperation on foreign policy, defence and security issues in addition to our economic and technical cooperation. The priority that both countries place on our bilateral relationship is underlined by the regular high-level exchanges that have taken place in recent years, including the state visit of the President of India to Mongolia in July 2011 and that of the President of Mongolia to India in September 2009. This was in fact President Elbegdorj’s first visit abroad after taking office as President. In January 2013, we were glad to receive Mongolian Foreign Minister Lu Bold and in the coming week we will be holding the next round of the Ministerial Bilateral Joint Committee in Delhi. This is thus a very active and dynamic bilateral partnership. Equally importantly, there is clear commitment on the part of our leaders to take this relationship forward.

Allow me to now make a few general observations about recent international dynamics from a strategic perspective. Speaking in very broad terms, there has been a shift in economic power from the West to the East. We are moving from a situation of Western dominance to a scenario where Asian countries, as well as some major developing countries such as Brazil will play an increasingly greater role even as the US, Russia and major European powers remain crucial international actors. Overall, given the current trends, there is little disagreement in strategic circles that this is the Asian moment, if not as is widely claimed, that this will be an ‘Asian century’.

At the same time, several Asian countries are experiencing significant political change, ranging from peaceful political transitions to a violent overthrow of regimes, the implications of which are yet to be fully understood. Asia also has several relatively younger nation-states, some of them just over two decades old as fully independent countries. Also, the pace of political and economic changes in Asia varies widely. The issues and challenges that countries face are also radically different as one moves across Asia. There has understandably been a lot of focus on developments in the Pacific, especially in the seas around China. At the same time, the prospect of a major and imminent shift in Afghanistan could pose even more significant challenges for Asian security over the immediate future.

Paradoxically, even as regional cooperation frameworks have multiplied across the world, and in Asia, there have been serious question marks about the idea of regional cooperation. In Europe for instance, efforts to proceed towards greater political unity have been impeded by multiple crises linked in many ways to attempts to forge greater economic and financial integration. In Asia, where we have several regional frameworks, some of which have been working reasonably well, efforts to bring about greater and broader regional cooperation have to absorb these lessons.

Thus, while it is clear that while this will in many ways be an Asian century, it is far from self-evident as to what sort of century this will be for Asia, India or Mongolia.

From a strategic perspective, the terms of engagement, of competition and conflict, have shifted. Of course, this is a dynamic reality. While it would be hasty to state that conventional conflict does not pose a very serious threat to peace and security, there are fewer and fewer open conflicts between states. At the same time, newer kinds of conflict are here to stay, such as proxy wars and terrorism, as well as new arenas for competition and conflict, over markets and resources or over cyberspace. All of these require new analytical perspectives and newer tools in the policy toolkit.

For India, clearly our immediate neighbourhood in South Asia will remain a key priority even as we engage with a larger Asian reality. The major changes underway in the SAARC countries, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives and Sri Lanka will continue to engage a large part of our attention. At the same time, China is also our neighbour. Even as we move forward in our bilateral partnership with China, we cannot remain disengaged with the larger strategic context involving China or even the US’ pivot to Asia. As we recognise China’s growing presence, we also feel the need to engage with them and our other partners about the content and terms of that presence. This is an area on which both India and Mongolia can have a useful exchange. I am sure this Seminar will generate some interesting insights in this regard.

Friends,

India is in the centre of Asia, especially if we were to look at the way Asia is placed in relation to the oceans. On our easst we have Australia, Southeast Asia and the ASEAN countries leading up to Japan and the Pacific. We have the vast Indian Ocean with all its significance for trade and energy security at the centre. If we move westwards, we have Iran and the mineral rich countries of the Gulf and West Asia. Above us, we have China and Central Asia. India has a policy of steady engagement across Asia, and we seek a future of cooperative structures that will promote economic interactions as well as ensure a peaceful context for our continued economic development. Our efforts will thus continue to focus on addressing issues through diplomacy and dialogue, and to bring together what appear to be competing or conflicting interests and perspectives.

Similarly, if we were to consider Mongolia’s position on a map, in many ways you are also at the heart of the Asian landmass. We are both developing countries wedded to democracy. It is thus not at all surprising that in many ways both our countries have a balanced orientation emphasizing peace and stability. This is a natural impulse engendered by our geographical position. Both our countries have foreign policies that try and seek to establish a larger, harmonious yet pluralist whole out of the diversity that confronts us. This is also in keeping with our shared Buddhist heritage of the middle path.

I wish the discussions today all success and look forward to hearing about your conclusions.

Thank you!