Militant Training Camps in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir: An Existential Threat Investigations into Mumbai's 26/11 attack made startling revelations about the militant training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The Mumbai perpetrators started from Baitul-Mujahideen in Muzaffarabad, the capital of the so-called ‘Azad Kashmir’, and headed for Mumbai via Karachi. They underwent specialized training in PoK for an extended period before the attack. Priyanka Singh | May 2009 | Strategic Analysis
Pakistan’s Approach to Kashmir Since the Lahore Agreement:Is There Any Change? In Lahore, in 1999, Pakistan dropped its 'Kashmir first' approach and agreed to discuss it with India along with other issues. Later, under Musharraf, there was an offer to move beyond UN resolutions and adopt a four-step approach to resolve the Kashmir issue. Musharraf's proposals were taken seriously and widely hailed as a sign of flexibility and pragmatism from the Pakistani side. This paper critically analyses these approaches since Lahore and argues that they were occasioned by the changing global political context and that they were more apparent than real. Ashok K. Behuria | May 2009 | Strategic Analysis
Nuclear Weapons and India–Pakistan Relations India-Pakistan relations are best understood as an example of nuclear rivalry, in which nuclear weapons both exacerbate and limit hostility. In all such relationships, the minimal possession of nuclear weapons suffices to deter. Both India and Pakistan have adopted a minimalist posture, yet their strategic thinking tends to be inconsistent, which makes them vulnerable to needless expansion. This essay points to the conceptual basis for an optimal doctrine. Rajesh M. Basrur | May 2009 | Strategic Analysis
Nuclear Weapons and India-Pakistan Relations: A Complementary Comment Nuclear weapons deter by the possibility of their use, and in no other way. Although US and Soviet arsenals became grotesquely excessive in both numbers and diversity in the late 1960s, by the later 1908s there had been very extensive reductions in both numbers and types. NATO's collective doctrine had accepted that the only sen-sible role for its nuclear weapons was for war-termination. Western governments had increasingly accepted the idea of sufficiency, recognizing that notions of nuclear supe-riority were vacuous. Michael Quinlan | May 2009 | Strategic Analysis
Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis February 2009 Highlight of the month was the peace deal signed by the NWFP government with the founder of Tehrik Nifaz Shariat-e- Mohammadi (TNSM), Sufi Mohammad. The deal did bring some ‘peace’ to the restive region but virtually handed over half the territory of NWFP to the Taliban by accepting Shariat laws for Malkand Division and Kohistan district of Hazara Division. As a result, the number of terror related incidents in Pakistan decreased from 430 in January to 374 in February 2009. T. Khurshchev Singh , Alok Bansal | May 01, 2009 | IDSA Comments
Response to Dr. Quinlan’s Critique Dr. Quinlan and I are in fundamental agreement on the validity of nuclear deterrence as a national security strategy because the possibility of nuclear use cannot be ruled out. Where we disagree is on the conceptual basis for formulating such a strategy. Dr. Quinlan finds my minimalist approach to deterrence unsatisfactory because it rests on a very small number of historical cases in which states with large arsenals were deterred by states with far smaller ones. Rajesh M. Basrur | May 2009 | Strategic Analysis
Fighting the Taliban : Challenges for Pakistan Army Rise of the Taliban in the frontier provinces of Pakistan portends several challenges to the Pakistan establishment, a fact that has lately raised much alarm and concern amongst the international community and in the region. The speed and vengeance with which several militant groups have rallied under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud and Mullah Falazullah undoubtedly puts Pakistan’s military on an acid test. The Pakistan Army to date has tackled the problem half heartedly in the troubled region. Harinder Singh | May 01, 2009 | IDSA Comments
Kargil War: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary Ten years later, the Kargil War still arouses deep emotions turning around Pakistan's gross perfidy, an intelligence failure, great heroism, military improvisation and innovation, a national upsurge, a most open inquiry leading to a comprehensive review of vital issues long closed to scrutiny and reform. Its report, prepared in record time, was uniquely presented to the nation as a commercial publication. (From Surprise to Reckoning: The Kargil Review Committee Report, Sage, New Delhi, December 1999.) B. G. Verghese | May 2009 | Strategic Analysis
Obama First 100 Days: Inherited Challenges and the Legacy Tripod April 29 marked the first 100 days of the presidency of Barack Obama. Urgency, pragmatism and engagement have marked his method of tackling the enormous challenges bequeathed to him by the previous administration. Complimenting this three-pronged approach in dealing with inherited challenges, the Obama administration has also initiated major policy moves with ambitious agendas encompassing a triad of issues - nuclear disarmament, energy independence and climate change. S. Samuel C. Rajiv | May 01, 2009 | IDSA Comments