Cryptology, Digital Assassination and the Terrorism Futures Market A recent news item indicated that the US Government had been planning a website that would enable people to place bets on the likelihood of terrorist events. It was hoped that a study of market trends would enable intelligence agencies to anticipate and prevent such events. R. Sukumaran | April 2004 | Strategic Analysis
Proliferation Security Initiative: An Assessment Proliferation of WMDs is a grave threat to mankind, be it their flow to ‘irresponsible states’ or to terrorists. Charged by its perception of vulnerability, the US has initiated the Proliferation Security Initiative; seeking involvement of ‘key’ states for interdiction of ‘suspect ships’ at sea. In its present form, PSI is contrary to the principle of ‘Freedom of the Seas’. Further, its operational efficacy is doubtful and it has an escalatory potential. However, bilateral arrangements as an extension of PSI may lawfully supplement global non-proliferation efforts. Gurpreet S Khurana | April 2004 | Strategic Analysis
Energy and Security in a Changing World The centre of gravity of global economic growth is rapidly shifting to the Asian continent. The transition is led by China and India which have propelled themselves onto a robust growth trajectory to be fuelled by affordable energy supplies. These developments have been accompanied by a fortuitous but significant growth in the sources of global energy supply, thanks to the re-emergence of Russia as the new petrostate and the discovery of substantial energy deposits in the Caspian and Central Asian Republics. Sudha Mahalingam | April 2004 | Strategic Analysis
Application of Social Network Analysis (SNA) to Terrorist Networks in Jammu & Kashmir The paper presents initial results from a limited exercise to apply Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology to the database on terrorism created in IDSA called Terrorism Tracker (or T2). Sudhir Saxena , K. Santhanam , Aparna Basu | January 2004 | Strategic Analysis
US-Iran: The Changing Dynamics and the Likelihood of a Conflict Washington-Tehran relations have come to occupy centrestage in the recent months given the United States’ current preoccupation with the Middle East. The US-Iran association can be traced back to 1953, when the CIA organised a coup to oust the elected government of Mohammed Mossadeq. Since then, the US has never really disengaged itself from the one of the most strategically important Middle East nations. This paper attempts to identify current US concerns regarding Iran and explores the possibility of a US offensive against Iran similar to that in Iraq. Parama Sinha Palit | January 2004 | Strategic Analysis
Post-1998 Track II Diplomacy Between India and the USA: An Indian Perspective The paper discusses Track II Diplomacy between India and the United States with a special focus on the post-1998 period. Its scope is limited to Track II deliberations that have relevance to foreign policy issues. An effort has been made to assess the efficacy of Track II exercises on the basis of certain parameters developed for this study. The findings of the study are based on the responses received from some experts in this field in India during direct interviews with them. Thus, the paper provides an Indian perspective. Bhabani Mishra | January 2004 | Strategic Analysis
US Policies in the Post-Cold War Era: An Indian Perspective The 9/11 attacks on the US have forced the Americans to believe that the US secret service agencies are helpless against the attacks of the committed suicide squads. These attacks and the subsequent happenings in Afghanistan and Iraq have not only removed the illusion of post-Cold War peace, but also heightened uncertainty and insecurity in the world. ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’ has given a clear message to the countries of the world that the US can go to any extent to protect its national interests even if the mandate of the world community is against such actions. Annpurna Nautiyal | January 2004 | Strategic Analysis
Sunni-Shia Relations in Pakistan: The Widening Divide The sectarian divide between the Sunnis and Shias in Pakistan has widened since the 1980s. The rising tide of sectarian violence during Musharraf’s rule (October 1999-till date), in spite of bans and restrictions imposed on sectarian outfits and elements by the administration, suggests that the two sects have drifted further apart. Ashok K. Behuria | January 2004 | Strategic Analysis
Psychological Operations (PSYOPs): A Conceptual Overview The psychological dimension of a conflict is as important as its physical dimension and psychological Operations (PSYOPs) have become even more relevant in this age of information, especially for a nation-state where the threat in the socio-psychological domain is more pronounced. While combating the menace of terrorism, the psychological dimension assumes great significance, as terrorists use violence as a psychological weapon by terrorising the multitude, rather than physically affect a few, and in this sense, they fight a psychological war also. Sunil Narula | January 2004 | Strategic Analysis
Reducing Nuclear Dangers after the AQ Khanspiracy The essay defines Pakistan’s brazen retailing of sensitive nuclear technologies as Bomb Process Outsourcing (BPO) and places it in a larger perspective. It offers a short retrospective of the development and manufacture of nuclear weapons by the P-5 in which significant manpower and materials were ‘foreign’. This is true of the programmes of Israel, Iraq, South Africa, Argentina and Brazil as well. Pakistan, has now, contributed to North Korea, Libya and Iran. K. Santhanam | January 2004 | Strategic Analysis
