IDSA Comments

Pakistan’s Peace Deals with Islamic militants: Lull before the Storm

The new ANP-led provincial government in NWFP signed a peace deal with the Islamic militants of Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) led by Maulana Fazlullah, on May 21, 2008. The deal is the most significant initiative taken by the provincial government to end endemic violence that has engulfed the scenic Swat valley since last year and follows another peace deal with Maulana Sufi Mohammad, the father in law of Fazlullah and the founder of TNSM on April 20. Sufi Mohammad had founded TNSM after leaving Jamaat-e-Islami in 1992.

Alok Bansal
May 28, 2008
IDSA Comments

The Need to Regulate Pakistan’s Use of Covert Action

Ever since the new democratically elected government assumed office in Pakistan, analysts have drawn up exhaustive priority lists of tasks before it. These range from restoring civilian pre-eminence over the military, countering terrorism, building democratic institutions, freedom of the media, and restoration of the judiciary. The new government, however, will do well to also order a review of the use of covert action as an instrument of state policy, which has been a major factor for the ills that afflict Pakistan and undermines its credibility in the international community.

Lessons of Jaipur

The Indian reaction to the terrorist attacks in Jaipur has so far been quite predictable. As usual the media has congratulated the citizens of Jaipur for ‘resilience’ and maintaining communal amity, while at the same time lambasting the security set-up in the state as well as in the centre including each and every security, intelligence and investigative agency and their working procedures, lack of coordination, absence of a central agency, etc. First of all, it has to be underscored that Jaipur was very important in the terror target book.

Hu’s Visit to Japan

Sino-Japanese relations were in the doldrums for the past decade because of the repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. One consequence was a complete freeze in mutual visits at the highest political levels between 2001 and 2006. Even exchanges at other levels were affected. The ice was broken in 2006 when Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe visited China, and the ice began to thaw when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Japan in 2007.

NATO’s Bucharest Summit

At the NATO Summit in Bucharest, Ukraine and Georgia’s loss became Russia’s overall gain. Ukraine and Georgia wanted to get the invitation for the pre-membership programme in NATO, which is the last step to full membership. Before the summit, President Bush went to Kiev and promised Ukrainian leaders that he would do all to support their country’s membership in NATO. But strong opposition from France and Germany put paid to Ukrainian and Georgian hopes.

Increasing Violence in the Assam Hills

The hill district of Assam, North Cachar Hills (N.C. Hills), has been recently in the news all too often but for the wrong reasons. Known for its pristine mountainous landscape and myriad ethnicities, culture and breathtaking bio-diversity, this hill district is now sadly dominating news bytes as a place plagued by a ‘vicious cycle of ethnically slanted indiscriminate violence’.

China and Maoist Nepal: Challenges for India

“[China] feels that the Himalayas alone in this nuclear age are not enough to guarantee its national security, especially in view of Tibet’s strategic location. [It], therefore, ideally wants a China of small, preferably pro-Chinese, neighbours on the cis-Himalayan region separating the two Asian giants.”

- Dawa Norbu

Renewed Infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir and the Indian Response

In a turnaround of events, the recent encounter with terrorists in Samba area and the reported infiltration of a large group of terrorists through the international border (IB) of Jammu region is a clear indication that levels of infiltration in Jammu & Kashmir are likely to see an increase this summer. The situation in the State was fast moving towards normalcy and hectic political activities were on with more political parties and other groups joining the mainstream, in a run up to elections later this year.

India-Brazil-South Africa ‘Tango’ at Sea

The first half of May 2008 (2-16) witnessed an epochal multilateral event that passed off virtually unnoticed in the countries involved. It saw the first ever combined maritime exercise among the navies of India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSAMAR). The lack of attention to it was hardly surprising given that the venue was the wide blue yonder, and the fact that the peoples of these countries are only beginning to realise the import of events that occur beyond terra firma.

Stalemate Redux in Sri Lanka?

A fierce battle in the North and the reported high casualties among Sri Lankan troops at Forward Defence in Muhamalai in the third week of April have placed a question mark on the conjecture that the endgame is up for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). There is no doubt that beginning with the Mavil Aru incident in mid-2006, the LTTE has been facing a major crisis. Its numerical strength has fallen. It is not doing too well in drafting recruits and procuring arms.