Strategic Analysis


Fairy Tale of American Decline and China’s Rise

Has the power and influence of the United States declined in recent years? Does the current global recession, the outcome of the US invasion of Iraq and the resilience of the Taliban in Afghanistan provide adequate rationale to profess waning of US influence? Has China's power and influence grown to an extent that can effortlessly put it on the top of the global hierarchy of power? Is the US–China interdependence equitable enough to work as a deterrent against unbolted conflict?

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Name of the Game Is Interdependence

Lawrence Summers, United States President Barack Obama's chief economic advisor and formerly secretary of treasury in the second term of the Clinton administration, once said that there was a ‘balance of financial terror’ between the US and its financial creditors, primarily China and Japan. Today, China, holding some $800 billion in US treasury bonds and some $2 trillion worth of currency reserves wields financial terror against the US.

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Strategy and Tactics in Countering Left Wing Extremists in India

Left Wing Extremism (LWE) presents a serious internal security challenge to India that needs careful and coordinated policy response from both the security front and the development front. For the CPI (Maoists) (Communist Party of India), the main outfit propagating LWE, the plan and execution of this style of people's war against the state is like the Churchillian ‘a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma’. At one level, the LWE can be described as a ‘Democratic revolution through tactical offensive with tactical speed in the protracted people's war of strategic defensive’.

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A Growing Technological Gap with China?

The drivers for sustaining the decades-long growth of the Chinese economy are the subject of enduring conjecture, controversy and even wonder. From a US$1 trillion economy in the 1980s, China's GDP has crossed the US$4 trillion mark and is vying with Japan for the status of the number two economy in the world. China has now set itself the task of becoming a major research and development (R&D) power in the medium-term, signalling its ‘arrival’ as a major power.

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‘Aman Ki Asha’ in Pakistani Media: Requiem for a Peace Process?

The peace process between India and Pakistan came to an abrupt halt with the Mumbai attacks on November 26, 2008 (26/11). Ironically, the attacks were carried out by Pakistani terrorists minutes after the foreign ministers of both countries met in New Delhi and pledged to take the composite dialogue process forward. Ever since, Pakistan's unwillingness to bring the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks to justice has come in the way of resumption of the composite dialogue. There have been many false starts, but the process continues to be in a state of suspended animation.

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Water a Pre-eminent Political Issue between India and Pakistan

Like in the 1950s, the word ‘riparian’ is back again in the India–Pakistan lexicon, becoming this time intensely political, emotional and divisive. This development is both instructive and unsettling. It is instructive to note how the current water realties of the two countries, which have changed significantly since the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in 1960, will now determine the treaty's future. With growing populations, inadequate water management techniques and the impact of global warming, water resources are under pressure.

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China and the Politics of Southern Asia

China has throughout its history played a significant role in Southern Asia. China is a large and very populous country. However, China's role throughout its history has been more related to its civilisation and ideas than to its size. There have been wars and invasions, peace and tributes, but the overriding impression that one has of China's role in Southern Asia is that of ideas institutions. When China's century-old revolution culminated in the establishment of a Communist government in China, its role acquired a very crucial dimension.

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