Strategic Analysis

Will NATO Stay On in Afghanistan?

A new actor was inducted in the decades-old Afghan conflict when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) assumed command of the UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in August 2003. NATO's entry into the Afghan theatre took place in the backdrop of the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003. With the United States diverting its resources and greater attention to Iraq, NATO was to expand its operations throughout Afghanistan in support of the US-led coalition force in a phased manner.

Positive Trends in Cross-Strait Relations

Democracy came to Taiwan under the leadership of Chiang Ching-Kuo, which brought an end to almost four decades of one-party dictatorship. Chiang Kai‐Shek had harboured the dream of overtaking the whole of China and establishing the rule of Kuomintang (KMT). But with the passage of time and a shift in the international political scenario, he realized that this would not be possible.

The Next Security Frontier: Regional Instability and the Prospects for Sino-Indian Cooperation

This article explains how growing economic interests have made China and India more prone to various non-traditional security threats in their neighbourhood. It examines whether this evolution has led both countries to mitigate their struggle for influence in favour of security cooperation, and found that despite shared security interests, China and India are not able to overcome mutual distrust. The conclusions are that the quest for short-term gains impedes substantial security cooperation and that economic ambitions have added new impetus to the regional struggle for influence.

The Game: A Rational Actor Approach to the US-led Invasion of Iraq, 2003

This article employs game theory to explain the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, seeking in particular to improve the understanding of why the Iraqi dictator chose a path of action that ultimately led to his downfall. The main argument is that Saddam Hussein lacked information about his opponent's payoffs and was lured by the possibility of becoming the undisputed leading figure of the Arabic world. The analysis shows that even if the threat of an allied attack in the end proved credible, Iraq could - quite rationally - have chosen to stand firm.

Japan’s Approach to Regionalism: Outlook towards the EAS and EAC

One of the most notable attempts by Japan towards fostering regionalism in recent years has been through its active and positive participation in the East Asia Summit (EAS), envisioned to be a stepping stone towards the formation of an East Asian Community (EAC). The idea behind regionalism and efforts towards the EAS and EAC are to be perceived within the broader context of Tokyo's attempts to shape the regional environment and influence policies in the region. Its primary goal is to neutralize and dilute the influence of China.

India’s Participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative: Issues in Perspective

The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is emerging as a key anti-proliferation platform with a global reach. However, being a US-promoted initiative with a military dimension, the PSI is yet to gain a multilateral character and raises concerns among nations. While backing the further expansion of this initiative, President Barack Obama seeks its institutionalization and cooperative enhancement. India is exhorted to join this initiative as part of the strategic cooperation with the United States. However, India is yet to decide its approach towards the PSI owing to various concerns.

The Interface of Strategic and War Fighting Doctrines in the India–Pakistan Context

There has been a shift to a deterrent strategic doctrine with an offensive bias. India's strategic doctrine is thus potentially a compellent one. However, cognizance of the need for limitation to conflict in the nuclear age entails identification of the implications of compellence for both conventional and nuclear doctrines. On the conventional plane, the hiatus between pivot corps and strike corps offensives is taken as a key 'exit point' for war termination efforts.

Ali Ahmed
September 2009
Strategic Analysis

Leadership, Factional Politics and China’s Civil-Military Dynamics: Post-17th Party Congress Patterns

This article highlights the changing dynamics of relations between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Liberation Army under the current leadership. While the military in China still remains politically loyal to the Communist Party, specification of the role of the military in the Chinese Constitution, generational changes in the CCP, factional politics, and relative depoliticization of the military are some of the factors suggesting a 'bifurcation' between the party and the military.

PLA Integration into the Nepal Army: Challenges and Prospects

Integration of Maoist combatants into the Nepal Army (NA) has become a contentious issue. Although the stakeholders have agreed on the integration process, they are yet to arrive at a consensus on how to attempt it. They have changed their positions frequently over the issue, which has complicated matters further. The NA holds the view that the lack of conventional training of Maoist combatants, as well as their ideological orientation, would have a serious effect on its professional standards.

A Critical Evaluation of the Union Government’s Response to the Maoist Challenge

The Union Government took notice of the current phase of the Naxalite challenge with concern, for the first time, in 1998. Since then, it has been playing a coordinating role among the various affected states to address the challenge. It has also been advising the affected states on ways to deal with the challenge. By 2003, the Union Government had put in place a two-pronged approach to address the Maoist challenge - that of a development response and a security response. However, all along, the Union Government's response has largely been security-centric.