Strategic Analysis

The South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) completed two decades of its existence in 2005. Yet it has only made modest progress in achieving its regional goals. The reasons for this are many. Successful regionalism requires a shared faith in collective gains and a vision for long-term cooperation that has been missing. There has been a visible lack of trust among some of the principal actors, a preponderance of domestic political consideration and a strong sensitivity towards sovereignty that has prevented collective action and gains from cooperation.

• Smruti S. Pattanaik
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

Complex and amorphous threats confront India’s security environment in its maritime East. India has very high stakes in the Bay of Bengal and its adjoining seas. The confluence of vital sea lines makes this region one of great strategic relevance to other powers as well. This translates into both challenges and opportunities for India. The Andaman & Nicobar archipelago had long been perceived as India’s key vulnerability due to its remote location and a history of some of its islands ‘slipping away’ from the Indian dominion. Such wariness may be unfounded in the present times.

• Gurpreet S Khurana
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

The end of the Cold War, the September 11 terrorists’ attacks, preponderance of US power and globalisation have shaped the present world order and posed new opportunities and challenges for China. China’s need to fulfill its grand strategy of acquiring comprehensive national power within this external environment and overcome the existing challenges has given rise to its post-Cold War foreign policy strategy. Given the challenges it faces, its primary need is to ensure continuance of a peaceful environment to sustain its reform and modernisation programme.

• Abanti Bhattacharya
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

Electoral politics in Taiwan reflects the popular ambivalence in articulation of its political and national identity. This ambivalence is testing the strength of nascent domestic democratic institutions. Taiwanese democratisation has also introduced a new variable in crossstrait relations that China and the US both have to contend with. Greater democratisation of Taiwanese politics and the struggle over the country’s national and cultural identity is making the management of crossstrait relations more complex for all three parties, i.e., Taipei, Beijing and Washington.

• Sonika Gupta
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

Reinventing the Past

• Alyson J. K. Bailes
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

The deeply troubling situation in Nepal is marked by three discernible trends. First, is the collapse of the ceasefire and commencement of violent activities, including strikes, blockades and attacks by the Maoists. This has led to the revival of counter-insurgency operations by the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA), reinforced by a fresh supply of arms and ammunition, and other military hardware from China.

• Arun Sahgal
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

The unprecedented worldwide protests and street demonstrations against the publication of a series of satirical cartoons by a Danish newspaper have become a topic of intense debate over the limits of free speech and what has been described as the ‘place’ of Muslims in the West. On September 30, 2005 the major Danish daily Jyllands-Posten from Aarhus printed a set of 12 caricatures depicting Prophet Mohammad, which Muslims believe is blasphemous.

• Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

Unable to restrain Iran from continuing with its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has turned to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for help. The IAEA, a specialised agency under the United Nations, by deciding to send to the UNSC its March 2006 report on the status of Iran’s implementation record on IAEA safeguards on its nuclear installations has indicated that the situation is serious enough to be taken up by the higher UN body responsible for international security.

• Rajesh Kumar Mishra
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

Escalation Control and the Nuclear Option in South Asia Edited by Michael Krepon, Rodney W. Jones, and Ziad Haider The Henry L.

Stimson Center, Washington DC, 2004, pp. 166

• S. Kalyanaraman
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis

Hassan Abbas
Pakistan’s Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army and America’s War on Terror M.E. Sharpe, New York, 2005, pp. 275.

Husain Haqqani

• Ashutosh Misra
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis