Strategic Analysis

India and the East Asian Summit

The inaugural East Asian Summit (EAS), touted as groundbreaking, commenced on December 14 in Kuala Lumpur comprising 16 nations— the 10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan, India, Australia and New Zealand with Russian President Vladimir Putin making a special appearance. The EAS Declaration, like many issued before in the region, is wide-ranging: from political and security cooperation, infrastructure development, financial issues, further liberalisation of regional trade and investment, poverty eradication to fighting epidemics. Nonetheless, inter alia, three points need underscoring.

Delhi Blasts, Terror Networks and India’s Internal Security

A series of bomb blasts in Delhi on October 29, 2005, that left 66 dead and 220 injured has, once again, underlined the acute vulnerability of major Indian cities to international terrorism. The blasts in Sarojini Nagar, Paharganj and a Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) bus in Govindpuri were well-orchestrated, nearly simultaneous, and targeted crowed markets and city centres.

The Afghan Elections and the Bonn Process: Assessing India’s Options

The thrice postponed Afghan parliamentary and provincial council elections are finally over. But, is the Bonn-mandated political process over? With the US intent on cutting down its troop levels in Afghanistan this year, is the ‘war on terror’ in Afghanistan also over? It is being said that the Bonn process has concluded with the September 18, 2005 elections. If so, then it is pertinent to examine the end-result of the four-year political process and the recently concluded elections.

Prime Minister’s Moscow Visit

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Moscow from December 4-6, 2005 highlights the continued importance of Indo-Russian cooperation in a changing geopolitical scenario. Beginning with President Vladimir Putin’s first visit to India in October 2000, bilateral summits between the Indian Prime Minister and the Russian President, alternatively in each other’s capital, have become an annual feature. In contrast, President Putin’s predecessor, President Boris Yeltsin visited India only once, in January 1993.

The Emperor Has (no) Clothes? An Autopsy

Niall Ferguson, Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (Penguin Books, New York, 2005), pp. 386.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation and International Security

I welcome this opportunity to present to such a distinguished audience some views on issues relating to nuclear non-proliferation and international security. At the outset, I would like to thank the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) for inviting me to deliver this address. The Institute has a well deserved reputation as our premier strategic think tank and quite appropriately, they have focused on a subject that not only has a strong contemporary relevance but represents a long term challenge for India and the international community.

Africa’s Energy Potential: Prospects for India

In recent years, Africa has emerged as a hot spot for energy sources. The reopening of the oil sector in Sudan and the oil discoveries in West and Central Africa has made this possible. There is a growing argument that oil breeds instability in the African and other oil-rich developing countries across the world. While oil wealth has led to an increase in conflicts in Africa, particularly in the case of Sudan and Nigeria, the rising energy demand is pushing major US, European, Chinese and Malaysian oil companies to invest in African oil.

Internal Political Dynamics and Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy Towards India

Bangladesh’s relations with India are multi-dimensional - ideological, political and also economic. An extreme sense of distrust, insecurity and perceived domination by India has shaped Bangladesh’s foreign policy in recent years. It at the same time, hesitant and finds it uncomfortable to function within a bilateral parameter. Whether it is trade, export of gas, provision of transit or the water issue, Bangladesh has argued for multilateral arrangements.

Political Violence in Bangladesh: Trends and Causes

Since the events of March 1971, Bangladesh has seldom been free from violence. While much of the recent attention revolves around religious extremism and militancy, political violence, as this paper argues, is a larger problem for Bangladesh. At every level of society, Bangladesh has had to confront with acts of violence. Lack of governance impedes the polity from effectively controlling violence, organised and unorganised, against different sections of society.

Foreign Economic Policy-Making in China

Understanding the inner dynamics influencing the ongoing process of economic reform in China, especially the flexibility achieved by government bureaux is important for strategic policy makers in India. The brief study seeks to determine the relationships of dominance, correspondence, and contradictions as well as the direction of influence, the sequencing between government bureaux, and the end results of their joint operations by applying the micro-macro linkage approach.