Complex and amorphous threats confront India’s security environment in its maritime East. India has very high stakes in the Bay of Bengal and its adjoining seas. The confluence of vital sea lines makes this region one of great strategic relevance to other powers as well. This translates into both challenges and opportunities for India. The Andaman & Nicobar archipelago had long been perceived as India’s key vulnerability due to its remote location and a history of some of its islands ‘slipping away’ from the Indian dominion. Such wariness may be unfounded in the present times.

• Gurpreet S Khurana |
• January 2006 |
• Strategic Analysis

The end of the Cold War, the September 11 terrorists’ attacks, preponderance of US power and globalisation have shaped the present world order and posed new opportunities and challenges for China. China’s need to fulfill its grand strategy of acquiring comprehensive national power within this external environment and overcome the existing challenges has given rise to its post-Cold War foreign policy strategy. Given the challenges it faces, its primary need is to ensure continuance of a peaceful environment to sustain its reform and modernisation programme.

• Abanti Bhattacharya |
• January 2006 |
• Strategic Analysis

Electoral politics in Taiwan reflects the popular ambivalence in articulation of its political and national identity. This ambivalence is testing the strength of nascent domestic democratic institutions. Taiwanese democratisation has also introduced a new variable in crossstrait relations that China and the US both have to contend with. Greater democratisation of Taiwanese politics and the struggle over the country’s national and cultural identity is making the management of crossstrait relations more complex for all three parties, i.e., Taipei, Beijing and Washington.

• Sonika Gupta |
• January 2006 |
• Strategic Analysis

Reinventing the Past

• Alyson J. K. Bailes |
• January 2006 |
• Strategic Analysis

Muslims comprise the second largest population after Hindus in South Asia. They are, however, not a monolithic community. The rise of religious fundamentalism in Pakistan and the official patronage it has got has an enormous political and security impact on the region. The terrorist campaign, sponsored by Pakistan and waged by Islamic fundamentalist groups in Jammu and Kashmir and Afghanistan, has wide implications and poses a major threat to the region. Setting up an Islamic state and Jihad are the two objectives of all fundamentalist movements.

• Kalim Bahadur |
• January 2006 |
• Strategic Analysis

The deeply troubling situation in Nepal is marked by three discernible trends. First, is the collapse of the ceasefire and commencement of violent activities, including strikes, blockades and attacks by the Maoists. This has led to the revival of counter-insurgency operations by the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA), reinforced by a fresh supply of arms and ammunition, and other military hardware from China.

• Arun Sahgal |
• January 2006 |
• Strategic Analysis

Different views have been expressed by the American non-proliferation lobbyists on possible loss or gain from the Indo-US nuclear agreement. Would the agreement complicate global non-proliferation efforts as the critics argue or would it lead to a stronger front to deal with emerging non-proliferation challenges? To answer these questions it is necessary to examine the merits of the arguments put forward by the US non-proliferation lobby carefully.

• Rajesh Kumar Mishra |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

The developments after 9/11 and the rise of neo-conservative thinking in United States accelerated a process that culminated in the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. The rapid collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime marked a defining moment in international relations. ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’ and its aftermath created an entirely new geopolitical context not only in Iraq but also in the wider West Asia. Huge challenges have emerged as a result of the invasion of Iraq, regime change, and the political reconstruction in Iraq.

• Satyanarayan Pattanayak |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

In India, the defence budgeting system is incremental and input-based. Yearly allocations of funds are made without reference to the defence plans. In effect, the budget does not get linked to any established goals or outputs. Resource planning beyond a one-year period is not carried out. Some have even called it an archaic system. The five-year defence plans have lost their utility for resource planning. This article brings out the shortcomings in the present budgeting system and recommends some options for a goal-oriented budgeting system.

• Pravin Joshi |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis

World over, differences exist about the impact of military expenditure. While development economists consider excessive military expenditure as wastage, many defence economists have a different view. With the defence versus1 development debate unending, China makes a unique contribution. While China’s defence expenditure is not well known, the hinese experience shows that investments in development do provide an expanded economic base subsequently, which will take care of defence needs.

• Bhartendu Kumar Singh |
• October 2005 |
• Strategic Analysis