Strategic Analysis

Iranian Nuclear Programme and Pakistan: Implications of the Linkages

Against all odds, Iran is pressing hard to prove its nuclear innocence and keeping its promises under the provisions of the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US is refusing to go along with Iran’s denials on violation of the NPT commitments. At the same time, the Bush Administration seems determined to stop the spread of nuclear weapons beyond Pakistan to other Muslim states. However, the facts emerging out of the probe into the A.Q. Khan episode and the international grey nuclear market indicate significant patterns of concealment and duplicity even by the NPT signatory states.

Nepal: Quest for Elusive Peace

Amidst the continuously expanding sphere of Maoist influence, political uncertainties and growing international interest, Nepal continues to remain one of the most volatile countries in South Asia. Recent developments have, once again, reconfirmed that while the Maoists have been successful in gradually pushing their agenda through violence and intimidation, the four-party coalition government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba is increasingly finding it difficult to evolve a coherent strategy to counter it.

Indo-Pakistan Talks 2004: Nuclear Confidence Building Measures (NCBMs) and Kashmir

After six years, in June 2004 India and Pakistan resumed the composite dialogue process that covers eight baskets of issues agreed upon in Male in 1997 between Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral and Nawaz Sharif. The eight baskets are Jammu and Kashmir; Siachen; Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project; Sir Creek; Terrorism and Drug Trafficking; Economic and Commercial Cooperation; Peace and Security; and Promotion of Friendly Exchanges in various fields. The last round of talks was held in October 1998 in Islamabad, on Peace and Security, CBMs and Jammu and Kashmir.

Karbi-Kuki Clashes in Assam

Militant groups clashing among themselves for control over the public resources even at the cost of the rights of the local tribal or ethnic community they claim to be defending, is an important factor behind persistent inter-ethnic conflicts

The Fallacy in the Russia-India-China Triangle

Much has been said about the India-China-Russia strategic triangle, a post- Cold War idea mooted by former Russian Premier Yevgeny Primakov.

Sudarshan Bhutani, A Clash of Political Cultures: Sino-Indian Relations (1957-62)

A Clash of Political Cultures: Sino-Indian Relations (1957-62) by Sudarshan Bhutani. Roli Books, New Delhi. 2004 282 p. Price Rs 450/- (HB)

Cryptology, Digital Assassination and the Terrorism Futures Market

A recent news item indicated that the US Government had been planning a website that would enable people to place bets on the likelihood of terrorist events. It was hoped that a study of market trends would enable intelligence agencies to anticipate and prevent such events.

Proliferation Security Initiative: An Assessment

Proliferation of WMDs is a grave threat to mankind, be it their flow to ‘irresponsible states’ or to terrorists. Charged by its perception of vulnerability, the US has initiated the Proliferation Security Initiative; seeking involvement of ‘key’ states for interdiction of ‘suspect ships’ at sea. In its present form, PSI is contrary to the principle of ‘Freedom of the Seas’. Further, its operational efficacy is doubtful and it has an escalatory potential. However, bilateral arrangements as an extension of PSI may lawfully supplement global non-proliferation efforts.

Energy and Security in a Changing World

The centre of gravity of global economic growth is rapidly shifting to the Asian continent. The transition is led by China and India which have propelled themselves onto a robust growth trajectory to be fuelled by affordable energy supplies. These developments have been accompanied by a fortuitous but significant growth in the sources of global energy supply, thanks to the re-emergence of Russia as the new petrostate and the discovery of substantial energy deposits in the Caspian and Central Asian Republics.

Pakistan’s ‘Sustainable Democracy’: Army as the Political Architect

Any study of political developments in Pakistan cannot be complete without examining the role of the Army. Though it might seem incompatible to talk of military and democracy in the same breadth, Pakistan provides an example of how the military has been able to govern the country as successfully as a civilian government. It has its own view of democracy, political stability and governance. It feels it has a political role which stems from the national security paradigm of the state.