Strategic Analysis


A Time Series Forecast of Geopolitical Market Concentration (GMC) Risk: An Analysis of the Crude Oil Diversification Portfolio of India

The oil-rich Middle East region is always seen as a politically volatile region, but it has been the source of crude oil supply to all major consumers worldwide for decades. The article makes an empirical analysis of the geopolitical risk of India's diversification portfolio, which is skewed towards the Middle East.

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The Delicate Balance: Israel and India’s Foreign Policy Practice

India's foreign policy interactions with Israel are marked by a political discreetness which is in contrast to its prominent political engagement with the Palestinians and countries of the Arab world. India plays down its robust defence engagement with Israel, censures Israeli policies regarding the Palestinians, supports Palestinian-related resolutions at multi-lateral forums like the UN, differs strongly from Israeli policy on issues such as Iran's nuclear programme while being opposed to the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

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Velayat-e-Faqih (Supreme Leader) and Iranian Foreign Policy: An Historical Analysis

There has been an increasing assertion of the velayat-e-faqih in Iranian politics in recent years. This has led to tensions between them and the presidential office in Iran. Against this backdrop, this article seeks to analyse the constitutional position of the velayat-e-faqih and how it has interacted with other institutions to shape Iranian foreign policy. The article critically analyses the relationship between the velayat-e-faqih and different popularly elected presidents.

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Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): Cooperation Problems on Human Rights

Though the original focus of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was primarily economic cooperation, the adoption of the ASEAN charter in November 2007 officially included cooperation on human rights. This article examines three hypotheses to determine the causes of cooperation problems: regime type, non-interference policy, and absence of an enforcement mechanism in the ASEAN charter.

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The Emerging Nuclear Security Regime: Challenges Ahead

everal measures are being initiated by the international community to secure sensitive materials. Al Qaeda's open interest in acquiring nuclear weapons and the rise of terrorist activity in nuclear-armed Pakistan have triggered a global interest in the need to secure nuclear weapons and materials. In April 2010 President Obama invited some key countries and international organisations in Washington to frame a new regime for nuclear security. The emerging regime includes some older initiatives as well as some new mechanisms, and it must address a number of issues.

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Managing India’s Land Borders: Lessons from the US Experience

India has been grappling with the problem of devising an efficient border management strategy that would prevent the entry of dangerous elements while at the same time allowing the legitimate flow of goods, services and people. Given that it has always been vulnerable to cross-border threats and challenges such as illegal migration, drug and human trafficking, gunrunning, smuggling of commodities and cross-border terrorism, India has taken a largely unilateral approach towards border management whereby security of the borders is accorded primacy over the free movement of people and goods.

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Bhutan’s Foreign Policy Determinants: An Assessment

This article assesses the shifting preferences of Bhutan towards the foreign policy determinants. Three determinants (national security, political culture and economic engagement) have been studied as they play a significant role in shaping Bhutan's policy behaviour. These determinants have been analysed with respect to India, Nepal and China, three countries that have been of critical interest to Bhutan's foreign policy.

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Examining China’s Hydro-Behaviour: Peaceful or Assertive?

China is a thirsty country desperately in need of water—a lot of it. In order to meet its water and energy requirements in the densely populated and fertile northern plains, it is successively making interventions in the Tibetan rivers in the southern part through dams and diversions. While China is well within its riparian rights to do so, a set of externalities involving the principles of water-sharing and lower riparian needs—stretching from Afghanistan to Vietnam—raise concerns.

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