A Possible Afghan Denouement

What is it that the Afghans hate most? What is it that the Pakistanis hate most? Answer: American presence. What is it that the Americans are beginning to hate most? Answer: Afghanistan. Most American writers are thus telling the Obama administration that the proposed surge will not work and hence to ‘shrink its forces’ or ‘change its strategy’ or do both ‘counterinsurgency’ and ‘counterterrorism’. Can this be done? The short answer is no.

Let us not forget that China has made a big investment in the Ainaq copper mines project that may finally reach the fantastic figure of US $5 billion. More interestingly, the Chinese work force is being protected by the Americans and other NATO forces in the region South of Kabul where the Taliban are most active. The fact that China has invested such a huge amount of money clearly shows that it is sure of Afghanistan’s future. The Afghan warlords, the Taliban and the Pakistanis are waiting for the United States to leave and they are sure that sooner than later the Americans will. Once that begins to happen the Quetta Shura comprising Hekmatyar and others of his ilk will be allowed to return to Afghanistan and form a loose coalition of warlords, Taliban, some residual politicos and the leaders of various tribes and ethnic groups. Why should that happen? Simply because they all prefer to sort out their problems without foreign (read US/NATO) interference. That may take time; there might be some bloodshed. Some leaders might be hung from the nearest pole in the Kabul Soccer field. Once the bloodletting is over the populace would settle down. When all this is happening the Indian Air Force may once again be called for emergency evacuation of our engineers, workers, trainers and the few paramilitary personnel.

Pakistan would claim credit for driving out the Americans and offer political recognition to the new regime and lean on its rich friends in the neighbourhood to do the same and also promise to use its good offices for financial assistance from these countries. All the work that the UN, India, Japan and the numerous NGOs have done to build infrastructure, roads, electricity transmission lines, telecommunications networks and hospitals and schools would be put to good use to consolidate control and win hearts and minds. This would be infinitely easier since the enemy has long left the country.

But some would doubt Pakistan’s capacity to survive without foreign aid. The solution for this predicament yet again lies with China and the United States. Following the Sun Tzu dictum of ‘winning wars without actually fighting,’ the Chinese would readily accelerate work in the Ainaq copper mines, give employment to hundreds of unskilled Afghan workers, and invest more money to access all the untapped mineral and raw material wealth of Afghanistan, which, in any case the local Afghan is not interested in nor is capable of exploiting. He would be happy so long as he is paid for it and the Chinese would surely do that. The Afghan drug industry might also flourish since China will not try to reform the locals so long as the drugs do not go to China. The Chinese would most certainly safeguard the border in the Wakhan corridor, build roads/highways and ensure that the new Taliban will not export terror to Xinjiang. With its clout among the members of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), China will succeed in reinvigorating the local economy and continue its quest for new energy and raw material sources. Its benign and beneficial presence would encourage local leaders to cooperate with a country that is obviously working for their good.

Pakistan would have achieved its long standing objective of ‘strategic depth’. Although it might not have total control of Afghanistan it will most likely succeed in maintaining its influence with the help of its powerful backer, China. So long as there is no unfriendly power in the region, Russia, Iran and the Central Asian countries will grudgingly or perhaps even gladly welcome China play the role of regional stabiliser and everybody will be happy and live long thereafter.

What can India do? It will have to accept the new reality and make new friends in Afghanistan and hope that it can develop economic linkages with the possibility of a new land route to Central Asia and accept its position as a junior partner to China. China will, in all probability, agree with such an arrangement so long as India works within the limits laid down by the Chinese. It will also have to stop entertaining any dreams of playing a major role in the region simply because Pakistan would always be ready to open the terrorist tap when needed. India would come under renewed pressure to resolve the Kashmir issue and the border dispute with China to the latter’s satisfaction.

Americans would gradually get used to the idea that spreading democracy is not so easy and perhaps not worth the price in American blood and money. The Europeans would begin doing deals with the new dispensation with an eye on profits and sooner than later the Americans will join them.

We Indians thought China was to our North; but now it would also be to our West. Who says geography cannot be changed?