National Security and Role of Technical Intelligence

I am grateful to Director Amitabh Mathur for the invitation to deliver the Golden Jubilee Oration of the Aviation Research Centre, better known by its acronym ARC. This is a special privilege and I feel honoured to speak to such a special audience.

The ARC was one among several new intelligence agencies, set up in the aftermath of Chinese aggression in September–October 1962 to strengthen our intelligence capabilities. Little was known, or talked about, even in the corridors of power, about the Agency during those days. No mention was ever made of the super secret operational HQ of the ARC at Charbatia in Odisha. The extent of its liaison with foreign intelligence agencies was never admitted. Now that the CIA’s archives of that period are in the public domain, the ARC’s past has emerged from the shadows.

I have chosen ‘National Security and the Role of Technical Intelligence’ as the subject of today’s Lecture. I propose to divide my talk into three parts – the External and Internal Security Environment, the Threat posed by Asymmetric Warfare and Cyber Issues, and the role of Technical Intelligence, followed by a Conclusion.

I. The External and Internal Security Environment

i) The External Environment
Our external environment, both in our extended and immediate neighbourhoods, has become increasingly volatile. The worsening external security and strategic environment is one of the defining imperatives as far as our national security is concerned.

Globalization and the crosscutting nature of most current threats are aggravating this situation. One example is the impact that the wave of protests sweeping many cities and urban areas of the world is having on peace and stability in countries beyond the peripheries of those nations. The 21st Century truth is that the more interdependent the world becomes, the more uncertain it tends to be. Also, the weaker the State the greater the danger of this happening.

In our extended neighbourhood to the West power struggles are turning increasingly violent, as recent developments in Egypt, Syria and Turkey have demonstrated. In many pockets of West Asia, sectarian conflicts have flared up. Opposing forces are in turn seeking asymmetrical support from Hizbullah or Al-Quaeda. In North Africa, Islamist parties which initially provided the catalysts for change, are enmeshed in ethnic and religious strife.

The extended neighbourhood to the East is also caught up in a new cycle of strife, involving religion, ethnicity and politics. There are signs of a growing conflict between Buddhism and Islam; violence involving the Buddhist Arakanese and Muslim Rohingyas in Myanmar, are by no means an exception. Such conflicts are today evident in Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Thailand. The intensity of the conflict between two of Asia’s biggest religions has implications for countries across the region, including India.

In our immediate neighbourhood the situation prevailing in Afghanistan and Pakistan carry grave portents for our security. In Afghanistan, the Taliban – patronised by the Pakistan Army and the ISI – has become one of the principal stakeholders in the region. Both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Taliban has gained in influence, with the Tehreek-e-Taliban of Pakistan declaring that it is part of the Afghan Taliban. Elements of the Pak Taliban are reportedly fighting alongside Syrian rebels as part of the Global Jihad.

The writing on the wall is clear, that once US forces leave Afghanistan, India will become a prime target. Attacks on Indian personnel and assets have already commenced, as evidenced by the recent attack on the Indian Consulate in Jalalabad.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, the altered circumstances in the region, alongside US Secretary of State, John Kerry’s push for full partnership between US and Pakistan, and the new Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reiterating the steadfast nature China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan, will only encourage Pakistan’s penchant for risk-taking, and result in further utilization of sub-state actors to target India.

It is important to note that the Al-Queda narrative remains a staple of Pakistani discourse even now. The current ruling dispensation in Pakistan (represented by the PML-N) also continues to maintain links to Punjab based militant groups including the Jamat-ud-Dawa and the Lashkar-e-Taiyyaba. Substantial allocations of funds have recently been made by authorities in Pakistan Punjab as also the Centre to the JuD, ostensibly for welfare activities. The Pakistan picture is hence far from reassuring.

Two of our other close neighbours to the North and East are embroiled in serious problems of their own. In the case of Nepal, India has become wedged into the faultlines of Nepali politics, unable to derive any advantage from the situation that prevails there. On the other hand, there is every prospect that anti-India sentiment in the country will become further enhanced.

In the case of Bangladesh, the conflict between the ruling Awami League and the Bangladeshi Opposition (led by the BNP and its Islamic alliance) is increasingly taking the shape of a pro-Islamist and anti-India conflict. The extent of anti-India sentiment is a matter of grave concern.

Coming to China, its increasing assertiveness while dealing with disputes whether on land or sea, which have raised concerns among many smaller nations of East and South East Asia, can hardly be ignored by India. Chinese nationalism is undoubtedly the main driver of China’s foreign and defence policies, and this is being abetted today by a revival of claims to Chinese exceptionalism as also its unique situation. This occurs from time to time in Chinese history, and now is one of those times.

China’s rapidly growing military capabilities; the inherent dynamics of China’s rise; increased possibilities of a Russia-China strategic partnership, accompanied by close military to military relations between them, (a facet of the new patterns of ‘major power’ relationships); the strategic partnership with Pakistan; and a possible rebalancing of the US military and strategic thrust to Asia, leaves Beijing free to employ its growing capabilities and asymmetric strategies to dominate its peripheries – India included. Of equal concern is that the PLA and the Central Military Commission seem to have regained their key role as far as winning ‘local wars’, i.e., involving getting back territories China claims to be its own, is concerned.

ii) The Internal Security Environment
The Internal Security situation, is definitely less threatening, but there are still a number of problematic issues that deserve attention:

• One is the emerging narrative of radicalism, extremism and fundamentalism, which is compelling many established parties and groups to readjust their policies and programmes. This often tends to be detrimental to our national unity, integrity and security.
• Another, is that areas which remained disturbed in the past such as J&K and the NE – have still to overcome the cycle of militancy and violence. In J&K, while levels of violence have declined, peace remains elusive. Indications are that the intensity of militancy in the State will increase in the coming period with Pakistan having stepped up its attempts to push in infiltrators – an 80% increase in infiltrations over the past several months has been reported. We also see the resurrection of the Hizbul Mujahideen, increased collaboration between cadres of various terrorist outfits like the LeT, the Hizbul Mujahideen and the JeM, and each of them demonstrating higher tactical skills.

  In the North East, despite appearances and claims, each of the States face new pressures, adding to their vulnerabilities. Semi-insurgent conditions continue in many of the States. Ethnic allegiance here continues to be in conflict with mainstream nationalism.

  New fires are raging across the region, including the demand for carving out new states. This is leading to both violence and uncertainty.

• Third is that asymmetric warfare and terrorism remain an ever-present threat. Neither the reduction in the number of terrorist attacks, nor the refrain in the West of the Al-Quaeda’s decline, mirrors the ground reality as far as the region or India is concerned. Recent arrests confirm the extent of planning that is being undertaken to launch fresh attacks. Both the LeT and Hizbul Mujahideen, are adding to their strength and their capabilities. Key members of the Indian Mujahideen continue to be very active. There is now evidence that the IM is spreading to newer areas, including India’s NE.
• Fourth is the inability to contain Left Wing Extremism. Measured against statistical benchmarks, LWE is on the decline. Maoists have also yet to progress to the stage of mobile or positional warfare. Yet, what is evident is that the movement has become stronger. It continues to attract fresh recruits and additional resources. It has not been possible to contain the arc of conflict; which appears to be expanding. It has also not been possible to publicly discredit it with any effective political strategy.

  Instead, the movement is evolving in several new directions, improvising newer techniques and coming up with new operational methodologies. It has enlarged its ambit of support, and this now includes several NE militant groups. It has been able to make common cause with so-called ‘special social sections’, including religious minorities. It has been successful in penetrating urban areas, specially Universities and other educational institutions.

II. Threat posed by Asymmetric Warfare, Terrorism and Cyber Issues

i) Terrorism:
Among the wide range of threats from asymmetric warfare, terrorism and cyber issues, to maritime security and security of the Global Commons, I shall limit myself to Terrorism and Cyber Issues since these are of greater relevance to a technical agency like the ARC.

Already by the end of the 20th Century, terrorism had come to be recognized as a significant threat. The two defining terrorist attacks in the first decade of the 21st Century, viz., the September 11, 2001 attack in New York, and the November 26, 2008 terrorist assault on multiple targets in Mumbai, however, have helped establish a new trend of apocalyptic terrorism.

The transition from politically motivated to religiously motivated insurgencies has been gestating for decades. Hasan al Banna who founded Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood in 1928 and Egypt’s Sayyid Qutub in the 1950s, were the forerunners of Abdulla Azam’s concept of ‘Global Jihad.’ The trend is shifting to Individual Jihad of the Abu Musab al Suri variety.

Terrorist groups, whether of the Al-Queda variety or others, today demonstrate an impressive capacity to regenerate. Despite repeated references to Al-Queda’s demise, it has only become more potent. It is today able to operate via its affiliates from West Asia, through North Africa, to South and South East Asia. Failing States and failing revolutions have tended to be the incubators.

Al-Queda’s metastasizing into a global network greatly adds to the danger potential of Pakistan based Al-Quaeda affiliates like the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and the Haqqani Network, as far as India is concerned. With the Al-Queda adopting more innovative techniques such as Liquid Explosive Gels (the underwear bomber), or newly designed explosives that can be hidden in body cavities or breast implants, dealing with the newer threats, specially those posed by suicide bombers, demands increased emphasis on smart technology.

ii) Cyber Issues:
Among the evolving challenges of the 21st Century, the cyber threat is clearly the most threatening. As cyber space expands, it appears well set to become the fifth domain of warfare.

Among the most vulnerable targets of cyber attacks are the military – including the nuclear and missile component – as well as national security targets and intelligence agencies, who face the greatest risk of serious disruption. Instances of Denial of Service attacks are already in vogue, as also hacking into highly protected, complex and secure networks. With States and Governments getting involved in the area of cyber warfare, a Strangelovean scenario is beginning to emerge. Conceptually speaking, there will, henceforth, be no such thing as peacetime.

III. Role of Technical Intelligence:

i) Technology as the driver of Intelligence:
Given this scenario, the role of technology as the driver of intelligence becomes crucial, though it cannot substitute for human intelligence.

Today’s technology driven, intensely networked societies employing programmes such as VoIP, can best be countered through harnessing the power of technology. Given its vast sweep and range, being fast and usually accurate, reliance on technical intelligence is growing. Every facet of intelligence, viz., intelligence gathering, intelligence analysis and intelligence dissemination – has become highly dependent on the use of Smart Technology. The impact of this has been nothing short of phenomenal.

As for example,
a) In the area of intelligence gathering:
Imagery satellites and remote sensing satellites are today critical for reconnaissance and imagery purposes. Cameras on low orbiting microsatellites are being employed – on an experimental basis – to send snapshots of the Earth from space. UAVs with highly developed sensors are employed by most intelligence agencies to provide a mass of data which cannot be provided by any other means. Small robots are also employed in certain circumstances.

Advances in technology have made it possible to intercept microwave and satellite communications, undertake digital signal processing; adopt infiltrating and modulation techniques and the like.
Tools employed include:

• Signal Intelligence (SIGINT) – one of the oldest forms of technical intelligence – which has today undergone a total makeover in sync with sophisticated signal emitting and receiving devices;
• Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) – which incorporates Ground-based, Air-based, Aircraft/UAV and Aerostat based, as also Satellite based ELINT systems,
• Communication Intelligence (COMINT) – which includes terrestrial monitoring systems, satellite monitoring systems and data monitoring systems.
• Foreign Instrumentation Signals Intelligence (FISINT) and Telemetry Intelligence (TELINT) – the main resource is technology to analyse sensor information from enemy missile systems and airborne platforms.
• Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT) – a technologically intensive, sub-discipline relying extensively on gathering information from various sensors/systems, including Space based infrared sensors; Line of Sight radar, Synthetic Aperture Radar, Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar, and optical measurement of nuclear explosions; etc.
• Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) – which involves satellite based, aircraft based, and UAV based IMINT systems;
• Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) – involves analysis of geospatial information. Both GEOINT and IMINT involve technology such as photo grammetry and use algorithms, etc.
  Given that both the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the Geographical Information System (GIS) today have extensive intelligence applications, the successful launch by ISRO of its first navigational satellite – the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS – 1A) and its plans to develop a constellation of seven satellites will greatly enhance our geospatial intelligence capabilities.

b) Intelligence analysis
Intelligence analysis is today heavily dependent on technical aids. Software based toolkits for logical analysis of GSM and CDMA mobile phones exist. Forensic Imaging Devices with the capability to acquire data from live systems and content based images are proving highly useful for the compilation of Metadata, from which some of today’s most critical analysis is being undertaken.

Analysts employing ‘social graphs’ to predict trends base these largely on technology to spot ‘phased transitions’, useful to deal with both large scale disorders and threats like terrorism.

Another well known analytic tool ‘Social Network Analysis’ depends almost entirely on technology. Studies involve how people interact with one another which are useful to predict a variety of disorders, including possible terrorist attacks. Yet another methodology which depends heavily on technology is ‘Scenario Planning’, i.e., building upon a mix of existing knowledge and intelligent imagination to create a series of snapshots of possible futures.

As the power of computers reach a critical mass, intelligence specialists are now beginning to employ yet another technology tool for intelligence analysis, which is linked to big data. The idea is that there is much to be learnt from a proper analysis of large bodies of information that cannot be comprehended when information is available in smaller amounts.

Votaries of this new concept believe that Big Data helps answer what, but possibly not why, and that in most cases this is adequate for intelligence analysis. The methodology involves a shift in the emphasis from causation to correlation, and simply takes note of an association among phenomena and uses this as the basis of how to react to a potential situation.

(c) Cyber Intelligence:
When it comes to Cyber Intelligence, the issue before intelligence agencies is how best to utilize both defensive and offensive capabilities that are available. Most important will be to protect a country’s critical infrastructure from crippling attacks, since even closed systems are being penetrated – the use of the STUXNET worm that was used to attack Iran’s nuclear facility is an example – and also from malicious malware to steal sensitive data. Sometime ago, the world of cyber space was agog with the threat posed by the malware called FLAME which is seen as one of the most sophisticated threats ever seen.

The increased nature of the cyber threat has strengthened the case for erecting better firewalls and hardening of systems to withstand attacks. In the US, apart from such methods, hopes are now being placed on advances in science, including the use of quantum mechanics to prevent such attacks.

India has recently announced a new National Security Policy to ensure a more coordinated defence system against cyber attacks. This involves a Central Nodal Agency, a Chief Information Security Officer in charge of Cyber Security, and closer coordination among the various intelligence, security and defence agencies engaged in containing the cyber threat. India also proposes to set up a National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC) to deal with cyber security threats in strategic areas. This will be placed under the NTRO.

(ii) Technical Intelligence Organisations
The Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), and the Aviation Research Centre (ARC) are the three organizations which qualify to be recognized as Technical Intelligence organizations. The premier Intelligence Agencies, viz., the Intelligence Bureau and the Research and Analysis Wing have their own technical intelligence wings, but of a much lower order.

When the ARC was set up at the end of 1962, it benefited from its association and liaison with foreign intelligence agencies, essentially that of the US. It could hence retain its position as the lead Technical Intelligence Agency during much of the 1960s and into the 1970s and 1980s.

The Defence Intelligence Agency which is primarily intended to serve the technical intelligence requirements of the Defence Services, has made significant strides in recent years.

The NTRO, established after a major review of the country’s intelligence system in 2000, came into being in 2004, and was positioned as a neutral state-of-the-art facility, mainly concerned with SIGINT, ELINT, IMINT, MASINT and GEOINT. Its mandate also included maintaining costly equipment including satellites, fixed wing aircraft, aerostats and UAVs. It has the sole responsibility for missile monitoring. In short, the NTRO was envisaged as the premier technical intelligence agency to produce intelligence for the entire national security community.

The jury is still out on whether the NTRO is anywhere near what it was expected to be. Its progress has been much too slow in an era of rapidly evolving technologies. Meeting increasing demands born out of the emergence of newer dangers, has also been an issue for the NTRO.

The advent of the NTRO has, however, left the ARC in a kind of limbo. It has led to severe constraints as far as the ARC’s future plans are concerned, thus reducing its efficacy.

The debate as to whether the country is best served by having one single centralized technical intelligence agency as against a multiplicity of organizations remains inconclusive. There are any number of good reasons for having a single Technical Intelligence Agency and there are many parallels, such as the NSA in the US, and the GCHQ in the UK.

The existence of a single TIA does make for rationalization in terms of the vast resources required for a modern TIA – both of money and personnel. Too many competing agencies also tend to lead to an information overload, which actually clouds rather than clarifies perception. Having a single centralized technical intelligence agency also removes the bias of individual intelligence agencies.

At the same time, a strong case can be made for redundancy in technical intelligence collection. Defence Services are well served through a centralized Defence Intelligence Agency which concentrates mainly on military targets. A similar case can be made out for another Agency in the civilian realm and the ARC could fill this slot. However, it would need to be detached from the RAW since an ARC viewed as a handmaiden of the RAW and not as an independent technical intelligence agency, would not serve the purpose.

IV. Conclusion:

Technical Intelligence is far from the answer to all our intelligence prayers. Satellite imaging, for instance, cannot readily penetrate the interstices of highly protected installations to provide the kind of detailed information needed, about what is taking place within its walls. It would need a mixture of traditional human intelligence and skills, with whatever information becomes available through technical efforts, to intuit around the boundaries of knowledge in many of today’s situations.

Technical intelligence is a resource guzzler. Obsolescence is one of the main hindrances as far as the usefulness of technical intelligence is concerned, since it is essential to keep pace with the evolution of technology and the rate of technology induction of our adversaries. Even more than human intelligence, it is often possible to come up with effective counter measures to prevent technical snooping.

One of the major problems of technical intelligence is not merely the huge amounts of data that is produced, but also that it is often messy and difficult to fit into a proper pattern or structure. In this context, the warning in the Isa Upanishad – ‘Plunged into darkness, are the worshippers of ignorance; Thrust into darker darkness, are those who delight in knowledge’, is valid. In the context of intelligence, it would mean that while the absence of knowledge is detrimental, knowledge alone is never quite enough. The elusive essence lies in the very edge of knowledge itself.

Undoubtedly, technical intelligence by providing information gleaned through interceptions or imagery helps, but excessive dependence on technical intelligence can prove to be counterproductive. There is need to effect a balance – combining quality human intelligence with precise and smart technology to derive the proper results.

The spectacularly successful ‘Reaper’ and ‘Predator’ drone attacks by the US Intelligence Agencies in different theatres of war such as Afghanistan and Iraq, involved a combination of technical prowess – satellite imagery, geopositioning systems, precision guided munitions technology, and most important, human intelligence, which provided all the important targeting information.

The steady rollout of new gadgets and ‘capabilities’ should not, hence, blind intelligence agencies to this reality. More would be needed than merely setting up banks of computerized databases, and devising data mining bots. Complimenting technical intelligence with human intelligence and high grade analysis is the key to production of accurate intelligence.

Thank you.

,,Speeches,Terrorism & Internal Security