In the present form, Prime Minister Abadi looks set to emerge as the largest block but the chances of his coalition getting the required majority are slim.
Defeats are orphans and very educative. Most defeats are, in fact, manifestation of erroneous judgments or equipment failure, or a combinations of the two. In case the defeats are of military force application then the costs are very high. The United Kingdom’s (UK) military missions and the losses in Iraq and Afghanistan can be classified as failures, if not outright defeats, and have thrown up significant lessons about its higher defence management.
One cannot say that Chilcot has come up with any startling or original insight. But it is useful to have solid documentary evidence in a consolidated form for the conclusions generally accepted.
The government in Baghdad has lost control over a stretch of territory to ISIL. It follows that Iraq is at present inexorably moving towards dissolution. In any case, it will be a difficult if not impossible task to recover in full the territory under the ISIL and its associates.
Nouri al-Maliki, the Shiite PM, seeking a third term in office, is facing growing opposition at home, including from his powerful Shia allies. There is also a growing rift within Maliki’s party members that his third consecutive political victory could marginalize them and strengthen his monopoly in the party as well as national politics.
It is not so much because of the use of chemical weapons that will unleash US fire-power, but the fact that the Assad regime might be winning the civil war in conjunction with its Iranian and Hezbollah allies.
The US has spent over a trillion and a half dollars and this huge expenditure has nearly unhinged its domestic economic equilibrium. At the strategic level the results for the US have been even more disconcerting in terms of Iraq's Shiite-led government refusing to let US troops stay on as well as extending support for fellow Shiites in Syria.
The events in Tunisia and Egypt have raised hopes among the people and, on the other hand alarmed the undemocratic and authoritarian Arab rulers. Time has arrived for the rulers to take note of the aspirations of the people.
President Barack Obama’s announcement that the “American combat role in Iraq has ended” has created fresh challenges for the region. Iraq needs to meet the daunting internal and external challenges in the wake of the American withdrawal to ensure stability.
