Myanmar

With the discovery of substantial gas in Myanmar's Sittwe region in the Rakhine state, India was keen to acquire gas from some of the new finds in the Shwe gas field, divided in several blocks, of which A-1 and A-2 blocks were closer to India and also estimated to have the best recoverable reserves. Given the geographical location, overland pipelines transiting through Bangladesh are the most cost-effective way of getting gas from Myanmar to India. Despite its initial enthusiasm, Bangladesh backtracked from its earlier willingness to be a partner to the tripartite pipeline.

• Sreeradha Datta
• January 2008
• Strategic Analysis

International pressure on Myanmar’s military government has intensified following the recent political upheaval triggered by a hike in fuel prices in August. This has brought into sharp focus the policies of Myanmar’s neighbours – China, India and the ASEAN States – whose reaction to the Naypyidaw regime has differed from capitals that are relatively distant. The UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy to Myanmar Ibrahim Gambari held consultations with leaders in New Delhi besides meeting Singapore’s Foreign Minister George Yeo recently.

• Udai Bhanu Singh
• November 02, 2007
• IDSA Comments

Myanmar has been in the eye of the storm in recent months. In August, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the Myanmarese military regime led by Than Shwe is known, arbitrarily increased the fuel prices from US $1.18 to $1.96 per gallon. This sudden decision caught the country's impoverished people by surprise, who subsequently began a massive non-violent protest. Similar mass protests had taken place in 1988 against the military regime's removal of bank notes from circulation resulting in loss of savings for the common people.

• Namrata Goswami
• October 19, 2007
• IDSA Comments

Thomas Friedman noted that "the price of oil and pace of freedom always move in opposite directions." This trend, which he cited in the case of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, can be equally applied to Myanmar as well. Though pro-democratic forces have been active in Myanmar earlier as well, the public display of dissent in recent days is unprecedented and demonstrates the increasing disenchantment against almost two decades of military rule. Since the junta came to power, economic conditions have deteriorated and poverty has increased.

• J Nandakumar
• October 04, 2007
• IDSA Comments

A new great game is under way in Myanmar. The huge offshore gas findings stretching from the borders of Bangladesh down to Thailand have resulted in a flurry of diplomatic manoeuvring with China, Thailand and other ASEAN countries as well as United States, India, the European Union, Australia and Russia all playing key roles. The equations are bound to change and many countries, for fear of losing influence with Yangon, are seeking a more 'pragmatic' approach.

• Åshild Kolås
• July 2007
• Strategic Analysis

President APJ Abdul Kalam began his three day (March 8-10, 2006) state visit to Myanmar on March 8 at the invitation of Sr General Than Shwe who himself had visited India in October 2004. The visit began on International Women's Day: whether this was a mere coincidence or carried any hidden symbolism (to draw attention to the continued house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi) is open to interpretation. However, one thing is certain.

• Udai Bhanu Singh
• March 09, 2006
• IDSA Comments

On December 5, 2005, the National Convention reconvened to resume the process of drafting a new Constitution. Without doubt the process of framing a new Constitution for Myanmar has been a long drawn out one. The National Convention, with over 1,000 delegates from various national races and groups, and comparable to a constituent assembly, first began its task in 1993. It last held its meetings between February 17 and March 31, 2005.

• Udai Bhanu Singh
• December 16, 2005
• IDSA Comments

There are embryonic signs that Washington is all set to turn the heat on Myanmar next. The UN Security Council finally agreed unanimously on December 2 to a US request for a “one-off briefing” by the Secretary-General on “the deteriorating situation” in Myanmar. The US request followed the Tatmadow’s extension of Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest and a UN Committee resolution condemning Myanmar’s human rights abuse.

• P. Stobdan
• December 14, 2005
• IDSA Comments

There are embryonic signs that Washington is all set to turn the heat on Myanmar. In a marked departure, UN Security Council unanimously agreed on December 2, 2005 to a US request for a “one-off” briefing by Secretary-General on “the deteriorating situation” in Myanmar. The US request followed Tatmadow’s extension of Aung San Suu Kyi’s (ASSK) house arrest and General Assembly Committee’s recent approval of a resolution condemning human rights in Myanmar.

• P. Stobdan
• October 2005
• Strategic Analysis

Disruption of terrorist networks - intra-regional, inter-regional and trans-national - should be supplementary to the overall counterterrorism strategy. Larger issues including socio-economic and cultural can only be addressed in the long-term. The immediate goal, however, has to be an effective localised response. Otherwise, efforts like Bhutan’s counter-terrorism operations against ULFA, NDFB and KLO - popularly called ‘Operation All Clear’- may only have a partial impact.

• Praveen Kumar
• July 2004
• Strategic Analysis