The coming of Taliban to power in Afghanistan could upset the geopolitical applecart in Central Asia and adjoining regions. The growing association of radical Uyghur groups like the ETIM, with IS-K and the spread of jihadist operations in Central Asia could have significant implications for regional and international powers, particularly for China and its ambitious plans for Silk Road imperialism.
While the international community has maintained a cautious stand vis-à-vis the Taliban, Tajikistan has decisively thrown its weight in support of the resistance movement against the Taliban and has made a clarion call for an inclusive government in Afghanistan.
The rising threat of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) since the Taliban’s capture of Afghanistan could be a red herring as it seems to be overplayed by Pakistan to mainstream and help the Taliban regime.
The relationship between TTP, or Pakistani Taliban, and Afghan Taliban will continue to be dictated by religious-ideological convergence, ethnic-fraternal linkages and the close camaraderie that emerged while they were fighting together against the foreign ‘occupying’ forces in Afghanistan.
Neither Russia and China nor the Central Asian countries have a clear strategy on how to handle the rapidly changing canvas in Afghanistan. An ambivalent waiting game tied by slow calibrated response has become the sine qua non strategy for the stakeholders in Afghanistan.
The choice of words Taliban employs to communicate with the international community is symptomatic not only of the limits of inter-cultural communication, but also depicts how meanings move across geo-cultural spaces and that “right” vocabularies are being used indeed as a qualifier to join the community of nations.
Beijing’s stance on Afghanistan’s political crisis and its approach towards the Taliban regime is a critical variable that will shape the geometrics of the China–Taliban–Pakistan nexus versus India and the West.
The early reactions from Turkey and Iran underline their readiness to work with the Taliban to safeguard their interests and expand their regional influence. Both are also willing to work with other regional actors to mitigate traditional and non-traditional security threats emanating from Afghanistan.
Maintaining security and stability in Central Asia seems to be a key pillar of Russia’s Afghan calculus. By positioning itself as an interlocutor of the Taliban, Russia aims to project itself as an indispensable pole in resolving global and regional issues.
