Iran

The latest US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear programme, “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities” of November 2007 (released on 3 December 2007) notes with “high confidence” that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme in the fall of 2003 and with “moderate confidence” that Iran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.

• S. Samuel C. Rajiv
• December 20, 2007
• IDSA Comments

The United States imposed unilateral sanctions against Iran on October 25, 2007 to complement its efforts towards getting a third set of sanctions through the UNSC.

• M. Mahtab Alam Rizvi
• November 29, 2007
• IDSA Comments

Iran began clandestinely developing a uranium enrichment programme in the early 1980s and claims that it is for peaceful purposes and solely for civilian use. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has claimed that firstly, Iran has no need for nuclear weapons and secondly, that nuclear weapons are forbidden by Islam.

• Ryan Clarke
• November 16, 2007
• IDSA Comments

The pressures on Iran to roll back its uranium enrichment programme have increased with the UN Security Council imposing harsher sanctions and Washington indicating that it is even ready to carry out military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, continues to claim that its nuclear programme is peaceful and is essential for producing electricity and helping economic development to meet the needs of a growing population.

• Shebonti Ray Dadwal
• May 2007
• Strategic Analysis

The general impression is that Iran has gained tremendously from rising oil prices, fuelled by its vast oil wealth. In reality, however, given increased domestic consumption coupled with inefficient usage and subsidies, Iran is actually struggling to produce enough oil and gas for export. Without substantial upgrades Iran's oil production is expected to go through a gradual decline. Though Iran has abundant oil reserves, estimated at around 137 billion barrels, it has not even been able to generate its OPEC quota due to lack of technical expertise and skills.

• Rohit Pattnaik
• February 23, 2007
• IDSA Comments

In addition to the earlier run two pilot cascades of 164 centrifuges, Iran has set up two more cascades of 164 centrifuges each despite repeated calls from the UN Security Council to halt enrichment related work. Addressing a mass rally on February 11, 2007 in Tehran to commemorate the 28th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, an unrelenting Iranian President boasted about continuing advancements in the country's nuclear programme and promised to announce a further surprising achievement by April 9, 2007.

• Rajesh Kumar Mishra
• February 12, 2007
• IDSA Comments

North Korea’s and Iran’s showdown with the US and the West on the nuclear proliferation issue are closely related to their dubious proliferation connections with the Pakistan-based A Q Khan network. Yet, Pakistan has announced that the case against Khan and his proliferation cohorts is closed. To comprehensively understand the nonproliferation challenges, it is crucial that the details about the network’s operations as also about Khan’s associates as well as their benefactors are publicly revealed.

• Rajesh Kumar Mishra
• April 2006
• Strategic Analysis

The Board of Governors of IAEA is scheduled to meet on March 6, 2006 to decide the next step after the passage of the February 2006 resolution against Iran. The crisis is deepening fast. The controversies related to Iran's past procurements and associated deeds seem to be far from coming to a close soon.

• Rajesh Kumar Mishra
• March 03, 2006
• IDSA Comments

Russia's concern over Iran's nuclear programme is increasing with every passing day. Iranian authorities are showing un-willingness to accept Russia's proposal to enrich uranium in Russian territory. Russia is trying to resolve an international crisis over Iran's suspected nuclear weapons programme, though its position on Iran has rhetorically moved closer to the European "Troika" (France, Germany, UK). Russia agreed to Iran's referral to the UN Security Council on the condition that the council would take action only after the March 6 IAEA meeting.

• Nivedita Das Kundu
• February 10, 2006
• IDSA Comments

Unable to restrain Iran from continuing with its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has turned to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for help. The IAEA, a specialised agency under the United Nations, by deciding to send to the UNSC its March 2006 report on the status of Iran’s implementation record on IAEA safeguards on its nuclear installations has indicated that the situation is serious enough to be taken up by the higher UN body responsible for international security.

• Rajesh Kumar Mishra
• January 2006
• Strategic Analysis